We provide a list of functional equations that characterize quantile functions for collections of bounded and measurable functions. Our central axiom is ordinal covariance. When a probability measure is exogeneously given, we characterize quantiles with respect to that measure through monotonicity with respect to stochastic dominance. When none is given, we characterize those functions which ar...

We study a model of non-Bayesian updating, based on the Hypothesis Testing model of Ortoleva (2012), for ambiguity averse agents. Agents ranks acts following the MaxMin Expected Utility model of Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989) and when they receive new information they update their set of priors as follows: If the information is such that all priors in the original set of priors assign to it a pro...

In this paper, we combine banking and car insurance data to examine the relationship between individual insurance demand and wealth. Controlling for the value of the car, we provide evidence for a positive relationship, suggesting that insurance is a normal good. This result contrasts with the common Decreasing Absolute Risk Aversion (DARA) hypothesis. However, we show that the investment in ri...

This paper analyzes the problem faced by a risk-averse firm considering how much to invest in a risky project. The firm receives a signal about the value of the project. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions on the signal distribution such that (i) the agent’s investment is nondecreasing in the realization of the signal, and (ii) different signals can be ranked according to their ex ant...

In this paper we test computationally the performance of CAPM in an evolutionary setting. In particular we study the stability of wealth distribution in a financial market where some traders invest as prescribed by CAPM and others behave according to different portfolio rules. Our study is motivated by recent analytical results that show that, whenever a logarithmic utility maximiser enters the...

An Alternative Explanation for the Variation in Reported Estimates of Risk Aversion There is a large literature estimating Arrow-Pratt coefficients of absolute and relative risk aversion. A striking feature of this literature is the very wide variation in the reported estimates of the coefficients. While there are often legitimate reasons for these differences in the estimates, there is another...

Researchers, using contingent valuation (CV) to value changes in nonmarket goods, typically believe respondents always answer questions truthfully or they answer truthfully only when it is in their interest to do so. The second position, while consistent with economic theory, implies that interpreting survey responses depends critically on the incentive structure provided. We derive simple test...

This paper presents a new theory of decision making with errors. The proposed theory explains all major violations of expected utility theory such as the preference reversal phenomenon (including the strong reversals and the preference reversals with the probability equivalents), the common consequence effect (the Allais paradox), the common ratio effect, the violations of the betweenness axiom...

This paper analyzes an agent’s option exercise decision under uncertainty. The agent decides whether and when to do an irreversible activity. He is tempted by immediate gratification and suffers from self-control problems. This paper adopts the Gul and Pensendorfer selfcontrol utility model. Unlike the time inconsistent hyperbolic discounting model, it provides an explanation of procrastination...

This paper proposes a simple unified framework of choice under changing awareness, addressing both outcome awareness and (nature) state awareness, and both how fine and how exhaustive the awareness is. Six axioms characterize an (essentially unique) expected-utility rationalization of preferences, in which utilities and probabilities are revised according to three revision rules when awareness ...