An important question when eliciting opinions from experts is how to aggregate the reported opinions. In this paper, we propose a pooling method to aggregate expert opinions. Intuitively, it works as if the experts were continuously updating their opinions in order to accommodate the expertise of others. Each updated opinion takes the form of a linear opinion pool, where the weight that an expe...

Abstract Vox pops, interviews with ordinary people on the street, are one of most common ways to represent public opinion in television news. Research found that they influence audience judgments more than static base-rate information such as poll results. However, little research has compared vox pops vivified information. Most studying assumed included news because their apparent attractivene...

OBJECTIVES A treatment pathway model was developed to examine the costs and benefits of the current bowel cancer service in England and to evaluate potential alternatives in service provision. To use the pathway model, various parameters and probability distributions had to be specified. They could not all be determined from empirical evidence and, instead, expert opinion was elicited in the fo...