The causal notions embodied in the concept of Granger causality have been argued to belong to a different category than those of Judea Pearl’s Causal Model, and so far their relation has remained obscure. Here, we demonstrate that these concepts are in fact closely linked by showing how each relates to straightforward notions of direct causality embodied in settable systems, an extension and re...

Solving the budget deficit problem is a concern for many countries; some economists emphasized tax increases or tax cuts, while others favour spending cuts. This paper investigates the interrelationship between total government expenditure and total tax revenue in Barbados using both bivariate and multivariate cointegrating models. The technique of Granger Causality is also applied to determine...

We examine the relationship between income growth and saving using both cross-country and household data. At the aggregate level, we find that growth Granger causes saving, but saving does not Granger cause growth. Using household data, we find that households with predictably higher income growth save more than households with predictably low growth. We argue that standard permanent income mod...

Identifying causal relations among simultaneously acquired signals is an important challenging task in time series analysis. The original definition of Granger causality was based on linear models, its application to nonlinear systems may not be appropriate. We consider an extension of Granger causality to nonlinear bivariate time series with the universal approximation capacity in reproducing ...

Canonical-correlation analysis as a multivariate statistical technique has been applied to multivariate Granger causality analysis to infer information flow in complex systems. It shows unique appeal and great superiority over the traditional vector autoregressive method, due to the simplified procedure that detects causal interaction between multiple time series, and the avoidance of potential...