In this paper, we extend Bai and Perron’s (1998, Econometrica, pp. 47-78) method for detecting multiple breaks to nonlinear models. To that end, we consider an unstable univariate nonlinear least squares (NLS) model with a limited number of parameter shifts occurring at unknown dates. In our framework, the break-dates are simultaneously estimated with the parameters via minimization of the resi...

The subject of the paper by David Gruen, Michael Plumb and Andrew Stone — how monetary policy should respond to asset prices — is obviously an important one. The formation of bubbles in asset prices and the eventual demise of those bubbles have the potential to cause damage to our economic and fi nancial systems. Macroeconomic instability in the form of unwelcome variability of output and infl ...

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. The recent recovery in Latin America has been impressive but ...

In this paper I deal with a number of issues related to financial instability in Latin America. I first discuss, from a macroeconomic research perspective, what I believe are some of the most important policy issues faced by the Latin American nations. These include the effectiveness of controls on capital inflows, the effect of exchange rate depreciation on output, and the international transm...

This paper considers the problem of forecasting in large macroeconomic panels using Bayesian model averaging. Practical methods for implementing Bayesian model averaging with factor models are described. These methods involve algorithms that simulate from the space defined by all possible models. We explain how these simulation algorithms can also be used to select the model with the highest ma...

Using annual data from 1997–2014 of 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, subdividing trended and cyclical volatility of macroeconomics and inflation, considering different indicators of financial development and financial structure, this paper investigated the impact of financial development and financial structure on macroeconomic volatility. The empirical results found that (...

This paper investigates the effects of macroeconomic volatility on non–financial firms’ cash holding behavior. Using an augmented cash buffer–stock model, we demonstrate that an increase in macroeconomic volatility will cause the cross–sectional distribution of firms’ cash–to–asset ratios to narrow. We test this prediction on a panel of non–financial firms drawn from the annual COMPUSTAT databa...

This study aimed to investigate the effects of fiscal decentralization on Ethiopia’s regional (Sub-national) macroeconomic stability. The followed a causational research design employing data from 2005–to 2018. units analysis in are sub-national governments (SNGs). utilized two-step System General Methods Moment (SYS-GMM) model since it resolves econometric issues, including endogeneity, autoco...

Follow the real estate market to elevate temperature, government to real estate market macroeconomic regulation and control into social economy hot topic. In order to enable the macroeconomic regulation and control policy to achieve the expectation effect, this article proposed the real estate macroeconomic regulation and control should pay attention several questions.