Insurers increasingly offer policies that converge with the products of the capital markets, and they face a need for integrative asset and liability management strategies. In this paper we show that an integrative approach—based on scenario optimization modelling—adds value to the risk management process, when compared to traditional methods. Empirical analysis with products offered by the Ita...

David Snowden’s Cynefin framework, introduced to articulate discussions of sense-making, knowledge management and organisational learning, also has much to offer discussion of statistical inference and decision analysis. I explore its value, particularly in its ability to help recognise which analytic and modelling methodologies are most likely to offer appropriate support in a given context. T...

This chapter proposes an integrated direct and indirect flood risk model for small and large-scale flood events, allowing for dynamic modelling of total economic losses from a flood event to a full economic recovery. A novel approach is taken which translates direct losses of both capital and labour into production losses using the Cobb-Douglas production function, aiming at improved consistenc...

The Use Case Map (UCM) scenario notation has some strong features related to rapid capture and evaluation of requirements models. In this paper, we explain how a UCM model was developed from a requirements oracle case study: the Autonomous Shuttle Transport System. We further consider establishing links between scenario elements and other types of requirements. These links, which can be support...

Process flexibility has evolved into a desired corporate capability as it promises to cope with demand uncertainty and variety. Particularly service processes have a high intrinsic need for flexibility. Many approaches have been proposed to determine the business value and an appropriate level of flexibility for service processes. Most of these approaches focus on a distinct flexibility type an...

This is the first paper to apply a combination of HAZOP and Risk Consequence Matrix plus Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) and Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) methods for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management in an industrial environment. This combination of methods allow obtain more information than using HAZOP and Risk Consequence Matrix because upgrades the in...

Existing instruments for measuring risk perception have focused on an abstract version of the concept, without diving into the the details of what forms the perception of likelihood and impact. However, as information security risks become increasingly complex and difficult for users to understand, this approach may be less feasible. The average user may be able to imagine the worst case scenar...