This paper concerns the probabilistic evalu­ ation of the effects of actions in the presence of unmeasured variables. We show that the identification of causal effect between a sin­ gleton variable X and a set of variables Y can be accomplished systematically, in time polynomial in the number of variables in the graph. When the causal effect is identifiable, a closed-form expression can be obta...

This paper reviews the current literature on the estimation of causal peer effects. After a discussion of causality in general, I introduce the standard peer effect model in networks and illustrate the reflection problem. I then present approaches to causal inference with observational data before introducing experimental approaches. I review estimation issues arising from measurement and sampl...

We introduce a flexible marginal modelling approach for statistical inference for clustered/longitudinal data under minimal assumptions. This estimated estimating equations (EEE) approach is semiparametric and the proposed models are fitted by quasi-likelihood regression, where the unknown marginal means are a function of the fixed-effects linear predictor with unknown smooth link, and variance...

Using variations in local real estate prices as exogenous shocks to corporate financing capacity, we investigate the causal effects of financial flexibility on cash policies of US firms. Building on this natural experiment, we find strong evidence that increases in real estate values lead to smaller corporate cash reserves, declines in the marginal value of cash holdings, and lower cash flow se...

Approximately 100,000 youths are currently incarcerated in the US, yet little is known whether such a penalty deters future crime or interrupts human capital formation in a way that increases the likelihood of later criminal behavior. This paper uses the incarceration tendency of randomly-assigned judges as an instrumental variable to estimate causal effects of juvenile incarceration on adult r...

Approximately 100,000 youths are currently incarcerated in the US, yet little is known whether such a penalty deters future crime or interrupts human capital formation in a way that increases the likelihood of later criminal behavior. This paper uses the incarceration tendency of randomly-assigned judges as an instrumental variable to estimate causal effects of juvenile incarceration on adult r...

INTRODUCTION Panel studies are of crucial importance to our understanding of the complex, interacting, and dynamic nature of causal processes in the social world. A limitation to valid inference from panel studies, however, derives from the reflexive nature of humans as research subjects; the very act of observation can serve to transform the behaviour of those being observed (Kalton and Citro ...