We study the threshold dynamics of a stochastic SAIRS-type model with vaccination, where role asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious individuals is explicitly considered in epidemic dynamics. In model, values disease transmission rate may switch between different levels under effect semi-Markov process. provide sufficient conditions ensuring almost surely extinction persistence time mean. case...

Using Markov-switching model, five return regimes are statislically determined for the monthly stock returns covering the period 1926 to 1992 and probabilistic inferences about these regimes are drawn. The results provide no support for the existence of the January effect. To account for the small-firm effect, again Markov-switching model Is applied to ten portfolios sorted by market value deci...

In every finite-state leavable gambling problem and in every finite-state Markov decision process with discounted, negative or positive reward criteria there exists a Markov strategy which is monotonically improving and optimal in the limit along every history. An example is given to show that for the positive and gambling cases such strategies cannot be constructed by simply switching to a "be...

Based on Markov switching model with a bounce-back effect, this paper analyzes the data of the economic growth in China. The findings suggest that Markov switching model with a rebound effect fits the macroeconomic growth data in our country better. What’s more, we can also see that the economic fluctuation in our country not only is characterized by its obvious nonlinearity and asymmetry but h...

In the present paper we propose a method to infer on the different clusters potentially present in a panel data set that is data driven in the sense that the classification of each subject into a specific group is estimated along with the model parameters. The general model allows additionally for time-varying parameters, whereby the timing of the structural changes is also part of the model es...