Iran is one of the oil exporting countries, so the oil price plays a remarkable role in the government budget and is a major source of foreign exchange. On the other hand, the reliance of the government budget to oil income as well as its fluctuations is a fact referred to as the most important cause of inflation by many researchers. This paper explores the effect of shocks in the exchange rate...

The purpose of this paper is to explain the causes of long-run movements in the parallel market premium in the pre-and-post revolution Iranian economy. The paper suggests that the premium is affected by both real and monetary shocks. Non-spurious co-integration results indicate that negative oil revenue shocks and a revolution-induced exogenous capital outflow caused the parallel market paralle...

Abstract Using oil futures, we examine expectation formation and how it alters the macroeconomic transmission of shocks. Our empirical framework, where investors learn about persistence oil-price movements, successfully replicates fluctuations in futures since Late 1990s. By embedding this learning mechanism an estimated model, document that increase TFP-driven demand largely accounts for inves...

the major challenge facing iranian economy is its overwhelming dependence on the oil exports. however, the world oil price has been subject to a lot of shocks, which have destabilized the iranian terms of trade. hence, this paper empirically examines the effect of terms of trade volatility on iran’s economic growth over 1967-2006. for this purpose, based on a garch model, a proxy for the terms ...