Article history: Received 29 February 2012 Received in revised form 31 July 2013 Accepted 5 August 2013 Available online 20 August 2013 This paper examines the comovement between the Chinese and US stock markets over the period between January 4, 2000 and January 13, 2012. We show that there is no cointegration relationship between the two markets, even when allowing for structural change. Thei...

This paper analyzes an approach to correcting spurious regressions involving unit-root nonstationary variables by generalized least squares (GLS) using asymptotic theory. This analysis leads to a new robust estimator and a new test for dynamic regressions. The robust estimator is consistent for structural parameters not just when the regression error is stationary but also when it is unit-root ...

The dynamic and complex relationship among economic variables has attracted the researchers, policy makers and business people alike. This study is an attempt to test the dynamic relationship among gold price, stock returns, exchange rate and oil price. All these variables have witnessed significant changes over time and hence, it is absolutely necessary to validate the relationship periodicall...

Panel data from the United Kingdom are used to estimate a wage curve that allows simultaneously for time, individual, and spatial effects and which thus finesses the problem of grouped data bias. Once allowance is made for the multilevel and crossclassified nature of the data, estimates of the unemployment elasticity of the wage are seen to be volatile and imprecise. JEL Classification: J30

We revisit the usefulness of long-run money demand equations for the European Central Bank. We first conduct a model evaluation exercise by means of a recent time–varying cointegration test. A stable relation for euro area M3 is not rejected by data only when accounting for both a speculative motive, represented by international financial markets, and a precautionary motive, proxied by changes ...

Forward exchange rate unbiasedness is rejected in tests from the current floating exchange rate era. This paper surveys advances in this area since the publication of Hodrick's (1987) survey. It documents that the change in the future exchange rate is generally negatively related to the forward discount. Properties of the expected forward forecast error are reviewed. Issues such as the relation...

We propose in this article a two-step testing procedure of fractional cointegration in macroeconomic time series. It is based on Robinson’s (1994) univariate tests and is similar in spirit to the one proposed by Engle and Granger (1987), testing initially the order of integration of the individual series and then, testing the degree of integration of the residuals from the cointegrating relatio...

This paper examines the relationship between stock returns and inflation. We focus on various econometric techniques to test this relationship, using monthly values of the Athens Stock Exchange Price index and the Greek Consumer Price index over the period 1988-2002. The results from a simple OLS model show evidence of a positive but not significant relationship, while when we consider a system...

We consider the modelling of volatility on closely related markets. Univariate fractional Ž . volatility FIGARCH models are now standard, as are multivariate GARCH models. In this paper, we adopt a combination of the two methodologies. There is as yet little consensus on the methodology for testing for fractional cointegration. The contribution of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility of...

The Impact of Relative Cohort Size on U.S. Fertility, 1913–2001 This paper tests for the long-term and short-term relationships between fertility and relative cohort size for the United States using the annual time series data between 1913 and 2001. An error correction model, imbedded with the cointegration theory, is coupled with the general impulse response function. Empirical evidence on rel...