The presence of rational price bubbles during the German hyperinflation is tested under two different structural assumptions on the money process. If the money supply is constrained to be exogenous to the current inflation rate, the hypothesis of no bubble can be rejected. However, this is no longer found to be true when a feedback rule from inflation to money creation is allowed. The analysis ...

The financial crisis that surfaced in 2007 has stressed the need to identify the ultimate sources of the incentives that were behind the preceding credit and housing bubbles. To lower the likelihood of future financial collapses, prudent economic policies as well as an adequate regulatory and supervisory framework for financial institutions are required. Monetary policy, in turn, should be dire...

An evolutionary agent-based model inspired by the adaptive market hypothesis is used to investigate the link between the microscopic parameter of sentiment and market price movements. Agents model cognitive and social behaviors by means of rules wired into their decision-making models and of parameters encoded in their genome. Results show that co-evolution and social interaction among traders ...

We describe a model of a stockmarket in which independent adaptive agents can buy and sell stock on a central market The overall market behavior such as the stock price time series is an emergent property of the agents behavior This approach to modelling a market is contrasted with conventional rational expectations approaches Our model does not necessarily converge to an equilibrium and can sh...

This paper demonstrates that insufficient liquidity, in the form of a shortage of safe assets that are useful as collateral in facilitating exchange, can lead to substantial movements in asset prices. There is a single asset that yields a positive payoff stream and can be traded in a centralized market. The asset can also be used to facilitate exchange in decentralized, or over-the-counter, tra...

I review the literature on financial speculation driven by belief disagreements from a macroeconomics perspective. To highlight unifying themes, develop stylized macroeconomic model that embeds several mechanisms. With short-selling constraints, can generate overvaluation and speculative bubbles. Leverage substantially inflate bubbles, leverage limits depend perceived downside risks. Shifts in ...

In this paper, we quantitatively investigate the statistical properties of a statistical ensemble of stock prices. We selected 1200 stocks traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and formed a statistical ensemble of daily stock prices for each trading day in the 3-year period from January 4, 1999 to December 28, 2001, corresponding to the period of the forming of the internet bubble in Japn, and it...

The ability to infer intentions of other agents, called theory of mind (ToM), confers strong advantages for individuals in social situations. Here, we show that ToM can also be maladaptive when people interact with complex modern institutions like financial markets. We tested participants who were investing in an experimental bubble market, a situation in which the price of an asset is much hig...

We develop a rational expectations model of financial bubbles and study ways in which a generic risk-return interplay is incorporated into prices. We retain the interpretation of the leading Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model, namely, that the price must rise prior to a crash in order to compensate a representative investor for the level of risk. This is accompanied, in our stochastic model, by an ...

It is commonly known in economics that markets follow both positive and/or negative trends, crashes and bubble effects. In general a strong positive trend is followed by a crash. Famous examples of these effects were seen in the recent crash on the NASDAQ (April 2000) and prior to the crash on the Hong Kong market, which was associated with the Asian crisis in the early 1994. In this paper we u...