introduction: continuous fluctuations in the prices of agricultural commodities have a significant effect on the situation of countries, especially developing countries in the world. in the short term, the impact of price shocks on imports of agricultural commodities and balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves is considerable in developing countries and it has negative effects on soci...

This paper thoroughly integrates speculative bubbles to corporate finance literature by focusing on dividend policy issues. More specifically, we examine the importance of when testing for in S&P 500 equity index a data set spanning 1871 2014. Given phenomenon smoothing, particular U.S., question usefulness observed payments as fundamental factor bubbles. Circumventing construct hypothetical pa...

This paper demonstrates the theoretical foundation that underlies the willingness of rational arbitrageurs to delay and reinforce the speculative attack. The key assumptions are that there is a small probability that arbitrageurs are behavioral and never time the market of their own accord and it is uncertain whether arbitrageurs are behavioral or rational. We model a stock market as a timing g...

Abstract The new high-choice media environment has raised concerns that users of social networking sites primarily select political information supports their opinions and avoid challenges them. This behaviour is reinforced by personalisation algorithms create filter bubbles both narrow the available content exclude challenging over time. These have, however, been contested. article underlying ...

Much has been written about the efficiency of markets in general and of the market for equities in particular, and of its implications for the more-orless random-like behavior of stock prices. The conventional argument is that opportunistic trading by rational investors will arbitrage away any gains that can be made from predictable patterns; what is left are the perturbations in asset values c...

Rational expectations macroeconomic models frequently possess an embarrassingly large number of equilibria. One of these equilibria is the familiar neoclassical solution in which t1 e price level grows at the rate of monetary expansion but there are others in which the price level is either explosive or implosive even in models with a constant nominal supply of money. Under certain conditions i...

Existing no trade results are based on the common prior assumption (CPA). This paper identifies a strictly weaker condition than the CPA under which speculative trade is impossible in a rational expectations equilibrium (REE). As our main finding, we demonstrate the impossibility of speculative asset trade in an REE whenever an insider is involved who knows the asset’s true value. To model insi...

The VAR approach for testing present value models is applied to a heterogeneousagent asset pricing model, using historical observations of the S&P500 index. Besides rational long-term investors, that value assets according to expected dividends, the model features rational and contrarian speculators. Agents choose their strategy based on evolutionary considerations. Supplementing the standard p...

The paper presents a model of rational Bayesian agents with speculative attacks in a regime of exchange rate which is pegged within a band. Speculators learn from the observation of the exchange rate within the band whether their mass is sufficiently large for a successful attack. Multiple periods are necessary for the existence of speculative attacks. Various defense policies are analyzed. A t...