First-principles based predictive understanding of complex, dynamic physical phenomena, such as regional precipitation or hurricane intensity and frequency, is quite limited due to the lack of complete phenomenological models underlying their physics. To address this gap, hypothesis-driven, manually-constructed, conceptual hurricane models and models for regional-scale precipitation extremes ha...

This paper synthesizes a set of national case studies conducted in the Sahelian countries during 2019-2020 as collaboration between universities and research institutes, Center for Development Research (ZEF), University Bonn, with contributions from Agrhymet Regional Centre, Permanent Interstate Committee Drought Control Sahel (CILSS). These provide up-to-date knowledge critical insights on nex...

We propose a re-interpretation of the oceanic influence on the climate of the African Sahel that is consistent across observations, 20th century simulations and 21st century projections, and that resolves the uncertainty in projections of precipitation change in this region: continued warming of the global tropical oceans increases the threshold for convection, potentially drying tropical land,...