Bayesian methods furnish an attractive approach to time series data analysis. This article proposes the forecasting models that can detect trend, seasonality, auto regression and outliers in time series data related to some covariates. Cumulative Weibull distribution functions for trend, dummy variables for seasonality, binary selections for outliers and latent autoregression for autocorrelated...

Rainfall is considered as one of the major components of the hydrological process; it takes significant part in evaluating drought and flooding events. Therefore, it is important to have an accurate model for rainfall prediction. Recently, several data-driven modeling approaches have been investigated to perform such forecasting tasks as multilayer perceptron neural networks (MLP-NN). In fact, ...

Research on forecasting the seasonality and growth trend of natural gas (NG) production consumption will help organize an analysis base for NG inspection development, social issues, allow industrials elements to operate effectively reduce economic issues. In this situation, we handle a comparison structure application different models in monthly using cross-correlation function then analyze ass...