Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective fun...

We consider decision making problems of the following form: we have a finite set A of decisions and a set S of scenarios, along with a total pre-order on decisions in each scenario. With one kind of interpretation it is assumed that one of the scenarios is (or will be) the correct one, but it is not known which, and the ordering in each scenario represents the decision maker’s preferences over ...

The paper contains a description of a new approach (called the SF+AS method, i.e. the scenario forecasting+alternative selection method) that can be used in decision making under uncertainty when pure optimal strategies are sought-after. This procedure takes into consideration the level of decision maker’s coefficient of optimism (or coefficient of pessimism) and consists of two stages: the tru...

OBJECTIVES The objective of this study was to provide a model for reducing outpatient waiting time by using simulation. MATERIALS AND METHODS A simulation model was constructed by using the data of arrival time, service time and flow of 357 patients referred to orthopedic clinic of a general teaching hospital in Tehran. The simulation model was validated before constructing different scenario...

Identifying Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) disposal sites and appropriately managing them is a challenging task to many developing countries like Bangladesh. It is a complex issue in an urban area, as increasing population levels, rapid economic growth and rise in community living standard, accelerates the generation rate of MSW. The study area is zone-2 (Mirpur-Pallabi) of Dhaka North City Corpor...

Background & objectives: Increasing solid waste has made waste management an important challenge in developing countries. The purpose of this study is to comparative evaluation of the application of incineration technologies and other waste disposal methods in Iran using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in 2019. Methods: In this descriptive-applied research, after making a hierarchy, the...

This paper formed part of a preliminary research report for a risk consultancy and academic research. Stochastic Programming models provide a powerful paradigm for decision making under uncertainty. In these models the uncertainties are represented by a discrete scenario tree and the quality of the solutions obtained is governed by the quality of the scenarios generated. We propose a new techni...

Many papers have studied the probability of majority cycles, also called the Condorcet paradox, using the impartial culture or related distributional assumptions. While it is widely acknowledged that the impartial culture is unrealistic, conclusions drawn from the impartial culture are nevertheless still widely advertised and reproduced in textbooks. We demonstrate that the impartial culture is...

Given the time, cost and risk associated with drug development, biopharmaceutical companies typically need to have a portfolio of drugs in development to be successful. Current pressures of cost and speed to market are driving the need for more effective means of assessing the value and risks of such drug portfolios. This paper presents research to generate a prototype computer tool developed t...