The amount of variation in zooid length within colonies of Recent cheilostome bryozoans has been shown to be a function of the seasonal temperature regime prevailing during a colony’s growth, and has been formulated in a regression equation which may be used to estimate absolute values of palaeoseasonality. Using this technique, data on intracolony zooid lengths from colonies from the lower Pli...

The rainfall seasonality index is the measure of precipitation distribution throughout the seasonal cycle. The aim of this study is to compare the effect of different multi-model averaging methods on the rainfall seasonality index at each 1/16 latitude-longitude cells covering the Columbia River Basin. In accordance with the same, ten different climate model outputs are selected from 45 availab...

This paper discusses the instability of eleven nonlinear state space models that underly exponential smoothing. Hyndman et al. (2002) proposed a framework of 24 state space models for exponential smoothing, including the well-known simple exponential smoothing, Holt’s linear and Holt-Winters’ additive and multiplicative methods. This was extended to 30 models with Taylor’s (2003) damped multipl...

Seasonality often accounts for the major part of quarterly or monthly movements in detrended macro-economic time series. In addition, business cycle nonlinearity is a prominent feature of many such series too. A forecaster can nowadays consider a wide variety of time series models which describe seasonal variation and regime-switching behaviour. In this paper we examine the forecasting performa...

Evidence from politically and socially stable countries in Northern Europe and the Southern Hemisphere indicates a marked decrease in the seasonality of suicide over the past two decades. Generalizabiity of this trend to societies in transition has not yet been investigated. Data for suicide by hanging in Timiş County of Romania show both a nondecrease in seasonality of suicide for the current ...

BACKGROUND Streptococcus pneumoniae is a common cause of community acquired pneumonia and bacteremia. Excess wintertime mortality related to pneumonia has been noted for over a century, but the seasonality of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) has been described relatively recently and is poorly understood. Improved understanding of environmental influence on disease seasonality has taken on n...

BACKGROUND Dengue fever (DF) has been emerging in Hanoi over the last decade. Both DF epidemiology and climate in Hanoi are strongly seasonal. This study aims at characterizing the seasonality of DF in Hanoi and its links to climatic variables as DF incidence increases from year to year. METHODS Clinical suspected cases of DF from the 14 central districts of Hanoi were obtained from the Minis...

Leaf quantity (i.e., canopy leaf area index, LAI), quality (i.e., per-area photosynthetic capacity), and longevity all influence the photosynthetic seasonality of tropical evergreen forests. However, these components of tropical leaf phenology are poorly represented in most terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). Here, we explored alternative options for the representation of leaf phenology effect...

OBJECTIVES Xinjiang is one of the highest TB-burdened provinces of China. A time-series analysis was conducted to evaluate the trend, seasonality of active TB in Xinjiang, and explore the underlying mechanism of TB seasonality by comparing the seasonal variations of different subgroups. METHODS Monthly active TB cases from 2005 to 2014 in Xinjiang were analyzed by the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adju...

Vegetation recovery monitoring is critical for assessing denudation areas after landslides have occurred. A long-term and broad area investigation using remote sensing techniques is an efficient and cost-effective approach incorporating the consideration of radiometric correction and seasonality variations across multi-date satellite images. This paper investigates long-term vegetation recovery...