background : this study aimed to analysis the inequalities of mortality of children under 5 years in west africa by examining the determinants and contributing factors to the overall inequality concentration in these countries. method : data used came from the dhs surveys conducted in the six countries in west africa: burkina faso (2010), benin (2006), cote d'ivoire 2011), ghana (2008), mali (2...

in this study, a new stochastic model is proposed to deal with a multi-product, multi-period, multi-stage, multi-site production and transportation supply chain planning problem under demand uncertainty. a two-stage stochastic linear programming approach is used to maximize the expected profit. decisions such as the production amount, the inventory level of finished and semi-finished product, t...

It is known that a stochastic differential equation (SDE) induces two probabilistic objects, namely a difusion process and a stochastic flow. While the diffusion process is determined by the innitesimal mean and variance given by the coefficients of the SDE, this is not the case for the stochastic flow induced by the SDE. In order to characterize the stochastic flow uniquely the innitesimal cov...

I compare the predictions of three variants of the altruistic parent model of Barro and Becker for the relationship between child mortality and fertility. In the baseline model fertility choice is continuous, and there is no uncertainty over the number of surviving children. The baseline model is contrasted to an extension with discrete fertility choice and stochastic mortality and a setup with...

The projection of mortality rates is an essential part of valuing liabilities in life-insurance portfolios and pension schemes. An important tool for risk-management and solvency purposes is a stochastic projection model for mortality. We show that ARIMA models can be better representations of mortality time-series than simple random-walk models. We also consider the sometimes-overlooked issue ...

We develop a theory for pricing non-diversifiable mortality risk in an incomplete market. We do this by assuming that the company issuing a mortality-contingent claim requires compensation for this risk in the form of a pre-specified instantaneous Sharpe ratio. We prove that our ensuing valuation formula satisfies a number of desirable properties. For example, we show that it is subadditive in ...

We study indifference pricing mechanisms for mortality contingent claims under stochastic mortality age structures. Our focus is on capturing the internal cross-hedge between components of an insurer’s portfolio, especially between life annuities and life insurance. We carry out an exhaustive analysis of the dynamic exponential premium principle which is the representative nonlinear pricing rul...

This paper reviews methods for mapping geographical variation in disease incidence and mortality. Recent results in Bayesian hierarchical modelling of relative risk are discussed. Two approaches to relative risk estimation, along with the related computational procedures, are described and compared. The first is an empirical Bayes approach that uses a technique of penalized log-likelihood maxim...

Livingstone's second mission site on the shore of Lake Malawi suffers very high rates of consequential lightning strikes. Comprehensive interviewing of victims and their relatives in seven Traditional Authorities in Nkhata Bay District, Malawi revealed that the annual rate of consequential strikes was 419/million, more than six times higher than that in other developing countries; the rate of d...

Life insurers often claim that the life settlement industry reduces their surrender profits and leads to an adverse shift in their portfolio of insured risks, i.e., bad risks remain in the portfolio instead of surrendering. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of altered surrender behavior––subject to the health status of an insured––in a portfolio of life insurance contracts on the sur...