This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding in which we developed a twin approach of non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. We have developed a family of latent-var...

Abstract The influence of Rossby waves emitted in the northeastern Pacific Ocean on Northern Hemisphere’s atmosphere during summer is analysed using ERA5 reanalysis and a new large ensemble performed with EC-Earth3 model. Wave Sources (RWS) trigger wave-like patterns arising from upper troposphere north-eastern region, causing response around Hemisphere alternating regions positive negative cor...

Abstract The authors investigated the interbasin interactions between Pacific and Atlantic Oceans depending on phase relationship of decadal oscillation (PDO)/Atlantic multidecadal (AMO) based observations idealized model experiments. When AMO PDO are in (i.e., +PDO/+AMO or ?PDO/?AMO), Ocean regulates SST anomalies equatorial with altering Walker circulation. During this period, there is a nega...

The daily weather at a particular place is largely influenced by the synoptic circulation and thermodynamic profile of the atmosphere. Heavy rainfall occurs from a particular subset of synoptic and thermodynamic states. Baseline climatologies provide objective information on heavy rainfall-producing circulation patterns and thermodynamic variables. This is how climatologically large or extreme ...

CO RR EC TE D PR OO Abstract The aim of this study is to classify the circulation patterns in the Atlantic-European sector and to reveal linkages between anomalies in the pressure field over the North Atlantic (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)) and its respective circulation pattern occurrence over continents on the one hand and rain fields on the other hand. Changes in atmospheric circula...

10 Observational analyses reveal that variations in sea surface temperatures (SST) in the 11 Kuroshio-Oyashio extension (KOE) region of the North Pacific are associated with two dis12 tinct and robust patterns of atmospheric variability: 1) a pattern that peaks in amplitude 13 approximately 2 3 weeks prior to large KOE SST anomalies, and is consistent with atmo14 spheric forcing of the SST fiel...

The relationship between winter climate extremes across the northeasternUnited States and adjacent parts of Canada and some important modes of climate variability are examined to determine how these circulation patterns are related to extreme events. Linear correlations between 15 extreme climate indices related to winter daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and three dominant ...

the aim of this research is recognizing synoptic patterns of the level 500 hp occurrence of late spring freezes over kurdistan province during 1965-2005. after determining freeze temporal-spatial threshold, 22 freezing days spreading over the region were extracted. then, level 500 hp height data located in a scope of 25-60 northern latitude and 30-60 eastern longitude was formulated as an s-mod...

The temporal nature of data collected in a smart environment provides us with a better understanding of patterns over time. Detecting anomalies in such datasets is a complex and challenging task. To solve this problem, we suggest a solution using temporal relations. Temporal pattern discovery based on modified Allen’s temporal relations [5] has helped discover interesting patterns and relations...

Starting from the assumption that the atmosphere is the primary source of variability internal to the midlatitude atmosphere–ocean system on intraseasonal to interannual timescales, the authors construct a simple stochastically forced, one-dimensional, linear, coupled energy balance model. The coupled system is then dissected into partially coupled and uncoupled systems in order to quantify the...