Count-valued time series data are routinely collected in many application areas. We particularly motivated to study the count of daily new cases, arising from COVID-19 spread. First, we propose a Bayesian framework time-varying semiparametric AR(p) model for and then extend it more sophisticated INGARCH model. calculate posterior contraction rates proposed methods with respect average Hellinger...

A preliminary version, please do not quote

Multislice simulations in the transmission electron microscope (TEM) were used to examine changes in annular-dark-field scanning TEM (ADF-STEM) images, conventional bright-field TEM (BF-CTEM) images, and selected-area electron diffraction (SAED) patterns as atomically thin hexagonal boron nitride (h-BN) samples are tilted up to 500 mrad off of the [0001] zone axis. For monolayer h-BN the contra...

Sea cucumber catch has followed “boom-and-bust” patterns over the period of 60 years from 1950-2010, and sea cucumber fisheries have had important ecological, economic and societal roles. However, sea cucumber fisheries have not been explored systematically, especially in terms of catch change trends. Sea cucumbers are relatively sedentary species. An attempt was made to explore whe...

In cointegration analysis, it is customary to test the hypothesis of unit roots separately for each single time series. In this note, we point out that this procedure may imply large size distortion of the unit root tests if the DGP is a VAR. It is well-known that univariate models implied by a VAR data generating process necessarily have a finite order MA component. This feature may explain wh...

Trend breaks appear to be prevalent in macroeconomic time series. Consequently, to avoid the catastrophic impact that unmodelled trend breaks have on power it is standard empirical practice to employ unit root tests which allow for such effects. A popularly applied approach is the infimum ADF-type test. Its appeal has endured with practitioners despite results which show that the infimum ADF st...

This paper describes and analyses a series of experiments intended to evolve a player for a variation of the classic arcade game AsteroidsTM using steady state genetic programming. The player's behaviour is defined using a LISP like scripting language. While the game interprets scripts in real-time, such scripts are evolved off-line by a second program which simulates the realtime application. ...

abstarct development of greenhouse gases in future periods not only causes change in average amounts of climate variables but also makes variables of this variability affected. then for sure concerning alternations followed with climate variables’ fluctuations and its average amounts in effecting on runoff would make more reliable results. in this inquiry initially fluctuations and average amou...