In this paper we examine the link between stock market uncertainty and monetary policy in the US. There are strong arguments why central banks should account for stock market uncertainty in their strategy. Amongst others, they can maintain the functioning of financial markets and moderate possible economic downswings. To describe the behavior of the Federal Reserve Bank, augmented forward-looki...

We examine optimal and other monetary policies in a linear-quadratic setup with a relatively general form of model uncertainty, so-called Markov jump-linear-quadratic systems extended to include forward-looking variables and unobservable “modes.” The form of model uncertainty our framework encompasses includes: simple i.i.d. model deviations; serially correlated model deviations; estimable regi...

This paper considers the joint problem of model estimation and implementation of monetary policy in the face of uncertainty regarding the process of structural change in the economy. We model unobserved structural change through time variation in the natural rates of interest and unemployment. We show that certainty equivalent optimal policies perform poorly when there is model uncertainty abou...

Using a standard factor decomposition of a panel of forecasts, we have shown that the forecast uncertainty from the standpoint of a policy maker can be expressed as the disagreement among forecasters plus the perceived variability of common aggregate shocks. Thus, the uncertainty of the average forecast is not the variance of the average forecast but rather the average of the variances of the i...

We study the design of optimal monetary policy under uncertainty using a Markov jumplinear-quadratic (MJLQ) approach. We approximating the uncertainty that policymakers face by different discrete modes in a Markov chain, and by taking mode-dependent linear-quadratic approximations of the underlying model. This allows us to apply a powerful methodology with convenient solution algorithms that we...

This paper analyzes which type of individuals’ characteristics drive behaviors in a public good game, depending on strategic uncertainty. The results of the laboratory experiment emphasize that advantageous inequity aversion has a significant effect on the contribution decision but beliefs on the others’ contribution and risk aversion are the characteristics that mainly lead the contribution de...

We characterize time-consistent dynamic risk measures. In discrete time in context of uncertainty, we canonically associate a class of probability measures to any dynamic risk measure when the filtration comes from a process bounded at each time. Dynamic risk measures are conditional risk measures on a bigger space. In continuous time, we characterize time consistency, studying composition of c...

This paper studies a model of announcements by a privately informed government about the future state of the economic activity in an economy subject to recurrent shocks and with distortions due to income taxation. Although transparent communication would ex ante be desirable, we find that even a benevolent government may ex-post be non-informative, in an attempt to countervail the tax distortio...

Did Political Constraints Bind During Transition? Evidence from Czech Elections 1990-2002 Many theoretical models of transition are driven by the assumption that economic decision making is subject to political constraints. In this paper we empirically test whether the winners and losers of economic reform determined voting behaviour in the first five national elections in the Czech Republic. W...

We characterize Markov-perfect equilibria in a setting where the absence of government commitment affects the financing of productive public capital. We show that at any date, a government in office only considers intertemporal distortions over two consecutive periods in choosing taxes. We then use our framework to quantify the value of commitment, which we define as that obtained from binding ...