Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output gap estimates for euro area data. For many periods the cyclical component of real M1 shows good result...

Simple rules for guiding monetary policy actions have been shown to achieve policy objectives effectively. In many of these simple rules, policy prescriptions depend on the economy’s level of potential output. However, potential output is unobservable and is estimated with uncertainty. We examine the effects that this uncertainty has on the stabilisation properties of three classes of simple ef...

This paper studies the information content of survey-based predictions for the Brazilian short-term interest rate. We perform vector autoregression analysis to test for the dynamic relationship between market expectations of interest rates and spot interest rates, and a single regression forecasting approach. Empirical results suggest that surveys may be useful in assessing market expectations ...

This paper quantifies the impact of changes in U.S. monetary policy on sovereign bond spreads in emerging market countries. Specifically, the paper explores empirically how country risk, as proxied by sovereign bond spreads, is influenced by U.S. monetary policy, country-specific fundamentals, and conditions in global capital markets. While country-specific fundamentals are important in explain...

This study examines whether the direction and magnitude of the aggregate order-imbalance of the index stocks can explain the arbitrage spread between index futures and the underlying cash index. The data are for the Asian financial crisis period and hence entail wide variations in order imbalance and the index-futures basis. The analysis controls for realistic trading costs and actual dividend ...

This paper examines why fundamental freedoms are so unevenly distributed across the earth. Climato-economic theorizing proposes that humans adapt needs, stresses, and choices of goals, means, and outcomes to the livability of their habitat. The evolutionary process at work is one of collectively meeting climatic demands of cold winters or hot summers by using monetary resources. Freedom is expe...

Simple rules for guiding monetary policy actions have been shown to achieve policy objectives effectively. In many of these simple rules, policy prescriptions depend on the economy’s level of potential output. Potential output is unobservable, however, and is estimated with uncertainty. We examine the effects that this uncertainty has on the stabilization properties of three classes of simple e...

This paper reviews methods for extracting both risk-neutral and physical density forecasts for interest rates. It presents some applications, with particular focus on issues pertaining to forward guidance and the zero lower bound. Several important applied questions in macroeconomics and monetary economics can be very directly addressed using the wealth of information in interest rate derivativ...

This paper develops a generalization of the formulas proposed by Kuttner (2001) and others for purposes of measuring the effects of a change in the federal funds target on Treasury yields of different maturities. The generalization avoids the need to condition on the date of the target change and allows for deviations of the effective fed funds rate from the target as well as gradual learning b...

We empirically analyze Taylor-type equations for short-term interest rates in the United Kingdom using quarterly data from 1970Q1 to 2006Q2. Starting from strong evidence against a simple linear Taylor rule, we model nonlinearities using logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) models. The LSTR models with time varying parameters consistently track actual interest rate movements better than...