We consider the problem of pricing a derivative contract written on the precipitation at a specific location during a given period of time. We propose a jump Markov process model for the stochastic dynamics of the underlying precipitation. Our model is based on pulse Poisson process models widely used in hydrology. We develop maximum likelihood parameter estimation procedures to fit our model t...

We consider an inference method for prediction based on belief functions in quantile regression with an asymmetric Laplace distribution. Specifically, we apply this method to the capital asset pricing model to estimate the beta coefficient and measure volatility under various market conditions at given levels of quantile. Likelihood-based belief functions are calculated from historical data of ...

This paper analyzes the role of money in asset markets characterized by search frictions. We develop a dynamic framework that brings together a model for illiquid financial assets à la Duffie, Gârleanu, and Pedersen, and a search-theoretic model of monetary exchange à la Lagos and Wright. The presence of decentralized financial markets generates an essential role for money, which helps investor...

In Brennan and Lo (2010), a mean-variance efficient frontier is defined as “impossible” if every portfolio on that frontier has negative weights, which is incompatible with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) requirement that the market portfolio is mean-variance efficient. We prove that as the number of assets n grows, the probability that a randomly chosen frontier is impossible tends to o...

In the Data Streaming world, screening for outliers is an often overlooked aspect of the data preparation phase, which is needed to rationalize inferences drawn from the analysis of data. In this paper, we examine the effects of three outlier screens: A Trimming Window, The Box-Plot Screen and the Mahalanobis Screen on the market performance profile of firms traded on the NASDAQ and NYSE. From ...

The stock markets have two primary functions, that of providing liquidity and price discovery. While the market micro-structure was mostly ignored or assumed to function ideally for the purpose of asset pricing, M. O’Hara (Journal of Finance, 2003) has established that both liquidity and price discovery affect asset pricing, and in particular asset returns. While the cost of liquidity provision...

A significant problem in modern finance theory is how to price assets whose payoffs are outside the span of marketed assets. In practice, prices of assets are often assigned by using the Capital Asset Pricing Model. If the market portfolio is efficient, the price obtained this way is equal to the price of an asset whose payoff, viewed as a vector in a Hilbert space of random variables, is proje...

We find that past stock market variance forecasts excess stock market returns and that its predictive ability is greatly enhanced if the consumption-wealth ratio is also included in the forecasting equation. While the risk-return tradeoff is found negative if we use the latter as the instrumental variable for the conditional moments, the former suggests a positive one. We argue that the consump...

We develop structural econometric tests of asset pricing theory for application to data from experimental financial markets. The tests differ from those used in the analysis of field data because they verify the consistency between prices and allocations, as opposed to merely testing whether only prices satisfy equilibrium restrictions. Our tests also differ from standard field tests because th...