Real economic data always present nonlinear properties such as asymmetry and radically change in the series through time. Missing data and jumps as well as breaks also common reported in economic time series model. Thus, linear models are no longer suitable used in estimate the economic data and markov switching vector autoregressive model (MS-VAR) is applied in study the economic model. This p...

• We quantify spillbacks from US monetary policy. use structural scenario analysis and minimum relative entropy methods. Spillbacks reflect a non-trivial share of the domestic effect They materialise through Tobin’s q/cash flow stock market wealth effects. Spillovers policy entail to economy. Applying counterfactual analyses in Bayesian proxy vector-autoregressive model we find that account for...

We consider whether a newspaper article count index related to the organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC), which rises in response important OPEC meetings and events connected with production levels, contains predictive power for foreign exchange rates G10 countries. The applied Bayesian inference methodology synthesizes wide array established approaches modelling rate dynamics, w...

Random Coefficient AutoRegressive (RCAR) models are obtained by introducing random coefficients to an AR or more generally ARMA model. These models have second order properties similar to that of ARCH and GARCH models. In this article, a Bayesian approach to estimate the first order RCAR models is considered. A couple of Bayesian testing criteria for the unit-root hypothesis are proposed: one i...

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, t...