The stakeholders in the stock markets use their interpretation of market condition, speculation and information available to them to make their trading decisions. This results in complex interactions between them and eventually the stock markets form a complex system where the stock price of various firms show an emergent behavior that is difficult to predict. One way to study the long term beh...

We employ a model of leverage-induced explosive behavior in financial markets to develop a measure of financial market instability. Specifically, we derive a quantitative condition for how large levered investors can become relative to the whole market before the demand curve for securities suddenly becomes upward-sloping and small price declines cascade as levered investors are forced to liqui...

Financial markets can be seen as complex systems in non-equilibrium steady state, one of whose most important properties is the distribution of price fluctuations. Recently, there have been assertions that this distribution is qualitatively different in emerging markets as compared to developed markets. Here we analyse both high-frequency tick-by-tick as well as daily closing price data to show...

Various authors claim to have found evidence of stochastic long memory behavior in futures’ contract returns using the Hurst statistic. This paper reexamines futures’ returns for evidence of persistent behavior using a biased-corrected version of the Hurst statistic and an estimate of the long-memory parameter based on the process spectrum. Results based on these new methods provide no evidence...

Various authors claim to have found evidence of stochastic long-memory behavior in futures’ contract returns using the Hurst statistic. This paper reexamines futures’ returns for evidence of persistent behavior using a biased-corrected version of the Hurst statistic, a nonparametric spectral test, and a spectral-regression estimate of the longmemory parameter. Results based on these new methods...

I am delighted to have the opportunity of speaking on the issue of development of financial markets along with Mr. Christian Noyer, Governor of the Banque de France. He has displayed a deep commitment to the development of financial markets over the years and we heard a very thoughtful speech from him on this subject at the Reserve Bank just two days ago. His approach to financial markets is ma...