In order to price commodity derivatives, it is necessary to estimate the market prices of risk as well as the functions of the stochastic processes of the factors in the model. However, the estimation of the market prices of risk is an open question in the jump-diffusion derivative literature when a closed-form solution is not known. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for estimating the...

mation bound to almost all commercial goods or services. Familiar terms such as price discrimination, price wars, price fixing, consumer price indices, price rigidity, shadow prices, price tags, and so on signify the key role of prices in society and how markets can fail if the price-setting mechanism falters. At the level of the firm, pricing is the key means by which rents are appropriated: I...

The application of Kalman filtering methods and maximum likelihood parameter estimation to models of commodity prices and futures prices has been considered by several authors. The usual method of finding the maximum likelihood parameter estimates (MLEs) is to numerically maximize the likelihood function. We present, as an alternative to numerical maximization of the likelihood, a filter-based ...

This paper studies the impact of international market structure on commodity prices. I use a standard oligopoly model and exploit historical variations in the structure of the international coffee bean market in order to measure how successful a cartel treaty was and to assess its global welfare consequences. The results suggest that the International Coffee Agreement (ICA, 1965–89) raised pric...

We develop a simple model with technical and fundamental traders to explain the cyclical motion of commodity prices. The crucial element of our model is a nonlinear market impact of technical traders: Estimation of our STAR-GARCH model using monthly US corn price data reveals that technical traders increasingly enter the market as booms or slumps enlarge. One reason may be that they only gradua...

Existence and efficiency of general equilibrium with commodity money is investigated in an economy where N commodities are traded at N(N − 1)/2 commodity-pairwise trading posts. Trade is a resource-using activity recovering transaction costs through the spread between bid (wholesale) and ask (retail) prices. Budget constraints, enforced at each trading post separately, imply demand for a carrie...

This paper investigates the role of aid in mitigating the adverse effects of commodity export price shocks on growth in commodity-dependent countries. Using a large cross-country dataset, we find that negative shocks matter for short-term growth, while the ex ante risk of shocks does not seem to matter. We also find that both the level of aid and the flexibility of the exchange rate substantial...

This paper investigates the role of aid in mitigating the adverse effects of commodity export price shocks on growth in commodity-dependent countries. Using a large crosscountry dataset, we find that negative shocks matter for short-term growth, while the ex ante risk of shocks does not seem to matter. We also find that both the level of aid and the flexibility of the exchange rate substantiall...

Unlike derivatives of financial contracts, commodity options exhibit distinct particularities owing to physical aspects of the underlying. An adaptation of no-arbitrage pricing to this kind of derivative turns out to be a stress test, challenging the martingale-based models with diverse technical and technological constraints, with storability and short selling restrictions, and sometimes with ...