Optimization is a decision Science which helps managements to take better decisions and refers to finding the values of decision (or free) variables. It is ubiquitous in daily life people use optimization, often without actually realizing, for simple things such as traveling from one place to another and time management, as well as for major decisions such as finding the best combination of stu...

This paper utilizes a probabilistic mold risk assessment method, introducing a novel mold risk indicator (MRI). The MRI captures the risk of mold occurrence at identified “trouble spots” under uncertainty. It will show how the MRI can enhance decision-making in a mold remediation case. When used in decision making under uncertainty, the MRI enables the best selection of remediation actions in t...

1 CHARLES RIVER ANALYTICS, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA Abstract We present a logic for reasoning with probabilistic arguments to help decision making under uncertainty. The syntax of the logic is essentially modal propositional, and arguments of decision makers are expressed as sentences of the logic, with associated supports drawn from a probability dictionary. To aggregate a set of arguments for...

This paper critically reviews practical difficulties inherent in some of the existing multi-criteria decision-making methods. The also emphasizes why a benchmark decision situation is essential assessing capabilities any method. capability terms accuracy modeling human process. Most methods consist two important steps. first step involves elicitation preferences from decision-maker on various c...

We study decision makers who willingly forgo decision rules that vary finely with available information, even though these decision rules are technologically feasible. We model this behavior as a consequence of using classical, frequentist methods to draw robust inferences from data. Coarse decision making then arises to mitigate the problem of over-fitting the data. The resulting behavior tend...

In this paper, we use the ‘favour game’ as developed in Harris et al (2009) to examine the nature of social norms regarding in-group favouritism behaviour. In the favour game, a decision-maker has to decide only once how to allocate a fixed amount of resource between each of the three members of her own group and each of the three members of the out-group, whilst the decision-maker’s own payoff...

Decision markets both predict and decide the future. They allow experts to predict the effects of each of a set of possible actions, and after reviewing these predictions a decision maker selects an action to perform. When the future is independent of the market, strictly proper scoring rules myopically incentivize experts to predict consistent with their beliefs, but this is not generally true...

The paper studies a model in which in period 1, a decision-maker chooses a set of lotteries; and in period 2, Nature chooses a lottery from the set chosen by the decision-maker and the decision-maker consumes the lottery chosen by Nature. Larger sets are interpreted as representing more ambiguous objective information about the lottery that will be consumed. The axioms imposed on preferences ov...