OBJECTIVE We developed a probabilistic model of how clinicians are expected to detect a disease outbreak due to an outdoor release of anthrax spores, when the clinicians only have access to traditional clinical information (e.g., no computer-based alerts). We used this model to estimate an upper bound on the amount of time expected for clinicians to detect such an outbreak. Such estimates may b...

A nosocomial outbreak of Serratia marcescens in respiratory samples predominantly from patients in a surgical intensive care unit is reported. Most of these patients were cardiac surgical patients. Initially, a vigorous but inconclusive investigation was implemented on the basis of standardized (according the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) steps of outbreak investigation. Then, ...

In this paper we first introduce the general stochastic epidemic model for the spread of infectious diseases. Then we give methods for inferring model parameters such as the basic reproduction number R0 and vaccination coverage vc assuming different types of data from an outbreak such as final outbreak details and temporal data or observations from an ongoing outbreak. Both individual heterogen...

We study the Chapman Jouguet (CJ) model and the selfsimilar Zeldovich von Neumann Do ring (SZND) model in chemically reacting gas flows. We discover some basic relationships among ignition temperature Ti , total chemical binding energy Q, and the adibatic exponent # of polytropic gas. From these relations, we can determine when temperatures along the SZND burning solutions are higher than the i...

background and aims: the world is threatened by disease outbreak that reaches a public health emergency of international concern, studies to inform public and agencies for effective containment strategy are necessary. several studies provided vital information of the dynamics and control of ebola epidemic outbreak in west africa. methodologies and techniques in those researches have to be revie...

A multinational outbreak of salmonellosis linked to the Riga Cup 2015 junior ice-hockey competition was detected by the Finnish health authorities in mid-April and immediately notified at the European Union level. This prompted an international outbreak investigation supported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. As of 8 May 2015, seven countries have reported 214 confirme...

Details of a severe outbreak of M. crocodyli infection in farmed crocodiles are reported. The outbreak was suspected to have been precipitated by translocation-related stress on the animals brought from a farm with a known history of M. crocodyli infection. Resorting to the use of an autogenous vaccine proved more effective in alleviating the disease manifestations than antibiotic therapy. Pros...

Outbreak investigations, an important and challenging component of epidemiology and public health, can help identify the source of ongoing outbreaks and prevent additional cases. Even when an outbreak is over, a thorough epidemiologic and environmental investigation often can increase our knowledge of a given disease and prevent future outbreaks. Finally, outbreak investigations provide epidemi...

BACKGROUND The ability to detect disease outbreaks in their early stages is a key component of efficient disease control and prevention. With the increased availability of electronic health-care data and spatio-temporal analysis techniques, there is great potential to develop algorithms to enable more effective disease surveillance. However, to ensure that the algorithms are effective they need...

In 2011, a large outbreak caused by a Shiga toxin producing E. coli (STEC) occurred in Northern Germany, with a satellite outbreak in Western France, including the highest number of hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) cases ever encountered during a STEC outbreak. The outbreak strain was characterized as an enteroaggregative E. coli of serotype O104:H4 expressing a phage-encoded Shiga toxin 2. The ...