Tracing the source of an infectious human disease can save lives. It allows for measures to be taken to prevent further spread of the disease. Although the mode of transmission for many human pathogens is known, it often remains difficult to trace the exact source of an outbreak of a disease with laboratory methods. Viruses, bacteria, fungi, parasites and protozoa can cause human diseases, but ...

ii Hiermit erkläre ich, dass ich die Diplomarbeit selbstständig angefertigt und nur die angegebenen Quellen verwendet habe. iv Acknowledgement Today, the day has come, I will complete my Diploma thesis. I am deeply grateful for the support of many people who helped me during these last months while I worked on this project. A special thank you to.... ... Michael Höhle for his excellent supervis...

Infectious disease outbreaks recapitulate biology: they emerge from the multi-level interaction of hosts, pathogens, and their shared environment. As a result, predicting when, where, and how far diseases will spread requires a complex systems approach to modeling. Recent studies have demonstrated that predicting different components of outbreaks–e.g., the expected number of cases, pace and tem...

Food and mouth disease (FMD) and Classical Swine Fever (CSF) are highly contagious diseases for pigs, and they are classified on the List A of the Organisation International des Epizooties (OIE) in Paris, France. Being a List A disease implies that every suspected case has to be investigated and once it is confirmed, the outbreak has to be notified. Both FMD and CSF are widespread in many parts...

plague is an infectious disease transmitted from rodents to humans. this disease is considered an endemic disease in western iran. the last officially reported case of human plague in iran was in 1965. in the last few decades, human plague has been reported in iran’ neighboring countries. also, according to some recent evidence witnessing infected rodents in western iran, it is probable to have...

This paper aimed to establish econometrical equation models for the Nile delta region in Egypt, which will represent a basement for future predictions of Lumpy skin disease outbreaks and its pathway in relation to climate change. Data of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were collected from the cattle farms located in the provinces representing the Nile delta region during 1 January, 2015 to D...

Rift Valley fever (RVF), a zoonotic vectorborne viral disease, causes loss of life among humans and livestock and an adverse effect on the economy of affected countries. Vaccination is the most effective way to protect livestock; however, during protracted interepidemic periods, farmers discontinue vaccination, which leads to loss of herd immunity and heavy losses of livestock when subsequent o...

Multiple determinants have been hypothesized to cause or favor disease outbreaks among free-ranging bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) populations. This paper considered direct and indirect causes of mortality, as well as potential interactions among proposed environmental, host, and agent determinants of disease. A clear, invariant relationship between a single agent and field outbreaks has not y...

The ecology and distribution of Bacillus anthracis is poorly understood despite continued anthrax outbreaks in wildlife and livestock throughout the United States. Little work is available to define the potential environments that may lead to prolonged spore survival and subsequent outbreaks. This study used the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction modeling system to model the ecological n...

Outbreaks of FMD can either be controlled by stamping-out or (circle) culling, or by (ring-) vaccination around the outbreak area, or by a combination of the two methods. The pros and cons of the two methods are discussed. A major draw-back – next to many other disadvantages of the massive circle culling is its contribution to spreading disease. We challenge the dogma that “vaccination against ...