The number of independent countries has almost tripled since World War II: in 1946 there were 76 independent countries; today there are 193. Until recently, most countries had their own currencies. Hence, the expansion of the number of countries led to a proliferation of the number of currencies. More recently, however, the identification of currencies with countries has weakened, and the discu...

We analyze the causes of apparent bias toward optimism in growth forecasts underpinning design IMF-supported programs, which has been documented literature. find that financial variables observable to forecasters are strong predictors forecast errors. The greater expansion credit-to-GDP gap years preceding a forecast, its over-optimism about over next two years. This result is strongest among w...

This paper disentangles the impacts of trade liberalization on firm market and production decisions. Using firm-product data for Ecuador, we exploit exogenous tariff changes at entry to World Trade Organization find positive effects revenue total factor productivity (TFP-R). Input-trade improves efficiency, measured by quantity (TFP-Q) leads firms raise their markups introduce new products foll...