This paper examines the magnitude of informational problems associated with the implementation and interpretation of simple monetary policy rules. Using Taylor’s rule as an example, I demonstrate that real-time policy recommendations differ considerably from those obtained with ex post revised data. Further, estimated policy reaction functions based on ex post revised data provide misleading de...

The communication policy of the European Central Bank attracts a lot of attention from financial markets. This paper analyses the informational content of the monthly introductory statements of the ECB president explaining interest rate decisions with regard to inflation expectations of financial market experts for the euro area from February 1999 to June 2007. Estimations are conducted for the...

JEL Classifications: JI, R2 College educated couples are increasingly located in large metropolitan areas. These areas were home to 33 percent of all college educated couples in 1940, 40 percent in 1970, and 48 percent in 1990. We investigate whether this trend can be explained by increasing urbanization of the college educated or the growth of dual career households and the resulting severity ...

In a model of oligopolistic competition in the banking sector, we analyse how the monetary policy rule chosen by the Central Bank can in ̄uence the incentive of banks to set high interest rates on loans over the business cycle. We exploit the basic model to investigate the potential impact of EMU implementation on collusion among banks. In particular, we consider the possible e€ects of the Europ...

We examine global economic dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. As in Evans, Guse and Honkapohja (2008), we find that under normal monetary and fiscal policy the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Unstable deflationary paths can arise after large pessimistic shocks to expectat...

This paper assesses the prospects for the new Polish monetary policy strategy of inflation targeting. Regarding the general requirements for implementing an inflation targeting strategy it appears that Poland has made sufficient progress in reducing fiscal dominance and hardening budget constraints. The paper also finds that the exchange rate has played a dominant role as a policy instrument, w...

——————————————————————————————————— We develop a model where agents can allocate their wealth between a liquid asset, which can be used to purchase consumption goods, and an illiquid asset, which represents a better store of value. Should a consumption opportunity arise, agents may visit a frictional “over-the-counter” secondary asset market where they can exchange illiquid for liquid assets. W...

Many central banks around the world have adopted a framework for implementing monetary policy that involves targeting a value for the overnight rate on unsecured loans of reserves between banks. The financial crisis wrecked havoc in this market and central banks responded, in part, by flooding the system with reserves, driving rates lower. We extend the canonical model of implementation of mone...

A number of recent studies examining historical experiences with deflation have called into question the widely-held view that maintains deflation is economically harmful. These studies contend that a broad, historical perspective reveals a more nuanced view of deflation, one that requires taking seriously both malign and benign deflation. This paper builds on these findings by taking an in-dep...

Allan Meltzer developed his model of the monetary transmission mechanism in research conducted with Karl Brunner. The Brunner-Meltzer model implies that the Federal Reserve would benefit from drawing brighter lines between monetary and fiscal policy actions, eschewing credit market intervention and focusing, instead, on using its control over the monetary base to stabilize the aggregate price l...