The sources of the May 1202 and November 1759, M 7.5 Near East earthquakes remain controversial, because their macroseismal areas coincide, straddling subparallel active faults in the Lebanese restraining bend. Paleoseismic trenching in the Yammoûneh basin yields unambiguous evidence both for slip on the Yammoûneh fault in the twelfth–thirteenth centuries and for the lack of a posterior event. ...

– In order to clarify how the statistical properties of earthquakes depend on the constitutive law characterizing the stick-slip dynamics, we make an extensive numerical simulation of the one-dimensional spring-block model with a rateand state-dependent friction law. Both the magnitude distribution and the recurrence-time distribution are studied with varying the constitutive parameters charact...

of the Tohoku Region was the 4th largest earthquake recorded in human history. It was a very complex disaster because of an accident that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi (No. 1) Nuclear Power Station of Tokyo Electric Power Co., Inc. (TEPCO) which was triggered by a total loss of power after seven Tsunamis extending from 30 minutes to 6 hours after the earthquake occurred, thereby resulting i...

The binned distribution densities of magnitudes in both the complete and the declustered catalogs of earthquakes in the Southern California region have two significantly different branches with crossover magnitude near M = 4.8. In the case of declustered earthquakes, the b-values on the two branches differ significantly from each other by a factor of about two. The absence of self-similarity ac...

Seismicity in the U.S. midcontinent has increased by orders of magnitude over the past decade. Spatiotemporal correlations of seismicity to wastewater injection operations have suggested that injection-related pore fluid pressure increases are inducing the earthquakes. We present direct evidence linking earthquake occurrence to pore pressure increase in the U.S. midcontinent through time-lapse ...

Operational earthquake forecasting in the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3 (UCERF3) model will be implemented using the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. Parameter values for the ETAS model are determined by fitting that model to the recent instrumental earthquake catalog. A grid search is done, and the loglikelihood is used as a measure of fit to estimate...

Forecasting the aftershock probability has been performed by the authorities to mitigate hazards in the disaster area after a main shock. However, despite the fact that most of large aftershocks occur within a day from the main shock, the operational forecasting has been very difficult during this time-period due to incomplete recording of early aftershocks. Here we propose a real-time method f...

Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event. The evaluation of this strategy leads to a onedimensional numerical exploration of the loss function. This first strategy is then refined by considering a clas...

The scaling behaviour of self-potential data (in the frequency range between 0 and 0.125Hz) observed in 1995 at Acapulco station in Mexico were investigated using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), which is a powerful method to detect scaling in nonstationary time series. Approximately two scaling regions with two different scaling exponents α1 (on low timescales) and α2 (on high timesca...