Epidemic models are crucial to understand how an infectious disease spreads in a population and devise the best containment strategies. Compartmental can provide fine-grained description of evolution epidemic when microscopic information on network contacts among individuals is available. However, coarser-grained descriptions prove also be useful many aspects. They allow derive closed expressio...

Active scanning worms have drawn a significant attention due to their enormous threats to the Internet infrastructure and services. In order to effectively defend against them, this paper proposes a novel epidemic SEIQV model with quarantine strategy. Using this SEIQV model, we obtain the basic reproduction number for determining whether the worm dies out completely. The global stabilities of w...

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a good example of a disease for which a One Health approach can significantly improve the management of outbreaks: RVF is a vector- borne zoonotic disease, its dynamics differ between eco-epidemiological patterns and are modulated by eco-climatic factors. Therefore, collaboration between sectors, disciplines and role players, as well as an understanding of the local e...

Interpandemic or seasonal influenza A, currently subtypes H3N2 and H1N1, exacts an enormous annual burden both in terms of human health and economic impact. Incidence prediction ahead of season remains a challenge largely because of the virus' antigenic evolution. We propose a forecasting approach that incorporates evolutionary change into a mechanistic epidemiological model. The proposed model...

Internet worms pose a serious threat to the Internet security. In order to effectively defend against Internet worms, this paper proposes a novel epidemic e-SEIQV model with quarantine and vaccination. Using this e-SEIQV model, we obtain the basic reproduction number for determining whether the worm dies out completely. The global stability of the worm-free equilibrium and the local stability o...

Novel coronavirus also known as COVID-19 was first discovered in Wuhan, China by end of 2019. Since then, the virus has claimed millions lives worldwide. In 29th April 2020, there were more than 5,000 outbreak cases Malaysia reported Ministry Health (MOHE). This study aims to evaluate trend analysis using Mann-Kendall test, and predict future Recurrent Forecasting-Singular Spectrum Analysis (RF...

Point process models such as the Epidemic-type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model have been widely used in the analysis and description of seismic catalogs and in shortterm earthquake forecasting. The standard errors of parameter estimates in the ETAS model are significant and cannot be ignored. This paper uses simulations to explore the accuracy of conventional standard error estimates based on ...

Disease transmission forecasts can help minimize human and domestic animal health risks by indicating where disease control and prevention efforts should be focused. For disease systems in which weather-related variables affect pathogen proliferation, dispersal, or transmission, the potential for disease forecasting exists. We present a seasonal forecast of St. Louis encephalitis virus transmis...

Gilberto M. Nakamura ∗ and Alexandre S. Martinez † Universidade de São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto 14040-901, Brazil Abstract The susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) agent-based model is usually employed in the investigation of epidemics. The model describes a Markov process for a single communicable disease among susceptible (S) and infected (I) agents. However, the disease spreading forecasting ...

Gravity models have a long history of use in describing and forecasting the movements of people as well as goods and services, making them a natural basis for disease transmission rates over distance. In agent-based micro-simulations, gravity models can be directly used to represent movement of individuals and hence disease. In this paper, we consider a range of gravity models as fits to moveme...