This paper studies the survival of fixed exchange rate regimes. The probability of an exit from a fixed exchange rate regime depends on the time spent within this regime. In such a context durations models are appropriate, in particular because of the possible non-monotonic pattern of duration dependence. Non-parametric estimates show that the pattern of duration dependence exhibits non-monoton...

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of exchange rate uncertainty in determining foreign direct R&D investment into the UK. We estimate an econometric model of FDI in R&D, using a panel of manufacturing industries. Our results suggest that an increase in the volatility of the euro-dollar exchange rate tends to relocate R&D investment from the Euro Area into the UK. A rise in the...

This paper analyzes the effects of pegged and floating exchange rates using a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model that is calibrated to the US and a European aggregate. The model assumes shocks to money, productivity and the interest rate parity condition. It captures the fact that the sharp increase in nominal exchange rate volatility after the end of the Bretton Woods (BW) system wa...

To simultaneously account for the properties of interest-rate term structure and foreign exchange rates within one arbitrage-free framework, we propose a class of multicurrency quadratic models (MCQM) with an (m+ n) factor structure in the pricing kernel of each economy. The m factors model the term structure of interest rates. The n factors capture the portion of the exchange rate movement tha...

This paper proposes a Gaussian estimator for nonlinear continuous time models of the short term interest rate. The approach is based on a stopping time argument that produces a normalizing transformation facilitating the use of a Gaussian likelihood. A Monte Carlo study shows that the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure offers an improvement over the discrete approximation metho...

This paper studies the response of the nominal exchange rate to monetary shocks in an economy with consumption home bias (CHB) and sticky wages. The importance of accounting for the exchange rate with CHB are twofold. CHB is a consequence of the small open economy assumption when outputs are specialized and fluctuations in the relative price of traded goods generate deviations from purchasing p...

This study examines the effects of taxes on the real exchange rate through their marginal impacts on economic activity. We develop a model that shows that an increase in the capital interest tax rate leads to real domestic currency depreciation while an increase in wage or consumption tax rates lead to a real domestic currency appreciation. These theoretical findings are supported by an empiric...

Most econometric methods for testing the proposition of long-run monetary neutrality rely on the assumption that money and real output do not cointegrate. This paper argues that these results can be attributed in part to the low power of univariate tests, and that a violation of the noncointegration assumption is likely to result in a nonrejection of the neutrality proposition. To alleviate thi...

In this paper, we consider the role of “leads” of the first difference of integrated variables in the dynamic OLS estimation of cointegrating regression models. Specifically, we investigate Stock and Watson’s (1993) claim that the role of leads is related to the concept of Granger causality by a Monte Carlo simulation. From the simulation results, we find that the dynamic OLS estimator without ...

We measure asset price jumps by the hedging error they induce on a delta-hedged position of European options. Based on high frequency data, we propose a nonparametric estimator for this measure and a test for its positivity. We further construct a Kolmogorov-type test for the presence of jump hedging errors for a possibly infinite-dimensional family of options based on the worst-case contract i...