Traditional backpropagation neural networks training criterion is based on goodness-of-fit which is also the most popular criterion forecasting. How ever, in the context of financial time series forecasting, we are not only concerned at how good the forecasts fit their target. In order to increase the forecastability in terms of profit earning, we propose a profit based adjusted weight factor f...

This paper provides an effective approach for forecasting return volatility via threshold heteroskedastic models of the daily asset price range, defined as the difference between the highest and lowest log asset price recorded throughout the day. We propose a general model specification, allowing the intra-day high-low price range to depend nonlinearly on past information, or an exogenous varia...

In the matter of financial literacy it is often supposed that more is automatically preferable to less. This paper considers to what extent this may be true generally, and specifically focuses on the case of investment forecasting skill (a significant component of an individual’s financial literacy). We show that the while improved forecasting skill can increase an individual’s own utility, the...

The foreign currency exchange market is the highest and most liquid of the financial markets, with an estimated $1 trillion traded every day. Foreign exchange rates are the most important economic indices in the international financial markets. The prediction of them poses many theoretical and experimental challenges. This paper reports empirical proof that a neural network model is applicable ...

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) allow users to improve forecasts through pattern recognition. The purpose of this paper is to validate ANNs as a detection tool in four financial markets. This study investigates whether market inefficiencies exist using ANN as a model. It also investigates whether additional publicly available information can provide investors with a trading advantage. In fina...

Interest rates are one of the most closely watched variables in the economy. They have been studied by a number of researchers since they strongly affect other economic and financial parameters. Contrary to other chaotic financial data, the movement of interest rates has a series of change points due to the monetary policy of the U.S. government. The basic concept of this proposed model is to o...