Working Papers are a series of manuscripts in their draft form. They are not intended for circulation or distribution except as indicated by the author. For that reason Working Papers may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of the author. Abstract This paper examines investor preferences for oil spot and futures based on mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD)....

A general method is established to derive a ground-complete axiomatization for a weak semantics from such an axiomatization for its concrete counterpart, in the context of the process algebra BCCS. This transformation moreover preserves ω-completeness. It is applicable to semantics at least as coarse as impossible futures semantics. As an application, groundand ω-complete axiomatizations are de...

Over the counter (OTC) forward contracts are regularly traded by hedgers at maturities beyond the longest-dated futures contract. The presence of seasonality in agricultural commodities creates additional uncertainty for obtaining fair prices for OTC forward contract trades beyond the liquid futures strip. This paper employs an augmented Nelson-Siegel function to obtain seasonal agricultural co...

This paper assesses how market fundamentals affect asset return volatility by drawing on evidence from the U.S. natural gas futures market. One of the novel features of this paper is the use of the deviation of temperatures from normal (weather surprise) as a proxy for demand shocks and a determinant of the conditional volatility of natural gas futures returns. I estimate a GARCH model using da...

This paper proposes a profit model for spread trading by focusing on the stochastic movement of the price spread and its first hitting time probability density. The model is general in that it can be used for any financial instrument. The advantage of the model is that the profit from the trades can be easily calculated if the first hitting time probability density of the stochastic process is ...

This paper presents a simple theoretical modei of the spot and futures markets for a storable commodity. We focus our attention in particular on the classical futures markets, those for harvested storable commodities. For these commodities which include grains such as wheat, corn, and soybeans, while there is active trading on the spot and futures markets at each instant, the output of the prod...

Although frequent fluctuations in domestic hog prices seriously affect the stability and robustness of the hog supply chain, hog futures (an effective hedging instrument) have not been listed in China. To better understand hog futures market hedging, it is important to study the steady state of intersubjective bidding. This paper uses evolutionary game theory to construct a game model between h...

This article studies the ability of an N-factor Gaussian model to explain the stochastic behavior of oil futures prices when estimated with the use of all available price information, as opposed to traditional approaches of aggregating data for a set of maturities. A Kalman filter estimation procedure that allows for a time-dependent number of daily observations is used to calibrate the model. ...

China’s introduction of CSI300 futures in 2010 has aroused widespread attention to whether the stock index futures market has effectively stabilized price fluctuations of its spot market in the past four years. Since the prices of CSI300 futures and CSI300 contain numerous noises and fluctuate drastically over time, this paper applies discrete wavelet transform to denoise these series by decomp...

This study proposes a hybrid model, which combines GARCH and Neural Network, for estimating VAR in Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones futures index market. Empirical results demonstrated that the hybrid method has certain outperformed the conventional method (historical simulation, variance/covariance and the Monte Carlo simulation) in estimating VAR. In terms of accuracy, the hybrid method is superior t...