In this paper we examine under what circumstances the information accumulated during market closing time and conveyed to the price formation at market opening may be exploited to predict where the stock price will be at the end of the trading day. In our sample of three financial time series, we find that, in spite of linear uncorrelatedness, there exists a strong nonlinear dependence structure...

This paper investigates the information content of the ex post overnight return for one-day-ahead equity Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting. To do so, we deploy a univariate VaR modeling approach that constructs the forecast at market open and, accordingly, exploits the available overnight close-to-open price variation. The benchmark is the bivariate VaR modeling approach proposed by Ahoniemi et a...

The advance selling strategy is implemented when a firm offers consumers the opportunity to order its product in advance of the regular selling season. Advance selling reduces uncertainty for both the firm and the buyer and enables the firm to update its forecast of future demand. The distinctive feature of the present study of advance selling is that we divide consumers into two groups, experi...

Price forecasting is an integral part of economic decision making. Forecasts may be used in numerous ways; specifically, individuals may use forecasts to try to earn income from speculative activities, to determine optimal government policies or to make business decisions. The importance of this topic is caused by instability in the world economy and stock markets; there is a growing interest i...

We present a simple macroeconomic model that includes a role for an asset-price bubble. We then derive optimal monetary policy settings for two policymakers: a skeptic, for whom the best forecast of future asset prices is the current price; and an activist, whose policy recommendations take into account the complete stochastic implications of the bubble. We show that the activist’s recommendati...

Al Introduction A2 Acknowledgments A2 Gold as a store of wealth the uses of gold A2 How much gold? A2 Factors influencing the price and production of gold A3 The role of gold in world monetary systems A6 Where gold comes from A6 Scope of this series, and conventions used A7 References cited A8 Geochemistry of gold in hydrothermal deposits Abstract A9 Introduction A9 Nature and source of solutio...

Income and price elasticity of demand quantify the responsiveness of markets to changes in income and in prices, respectively. Under the assumptions of utility maximization and preference independence (additive preferences), mathematical relationships between income elasticity values and the uncompensated own and cross price elasticity of demand are here derived using the differential approach ...

The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that should be implemented. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several respects. First of all, we test and systematically evaluate the ability of several alternative econometric specifications proposed in the literature to capture the dynamics of oil prices. Sec...

O f the bullionist writers who advocated restoration of the gold convertibility of England’s currency during the Bank Restriction period 1797–1821, few are as little known today as John Wheatley. Certainly his name is not as familiar as those of David Ricardo, Henry Thornton, Thomas Malthus, Francis Horner, William Huskisson, and other bullionists. Yet in some respects he was the most original ...

Commodities, ranging from natural gas to memory chips, can be procured both by trading on the date in spot markets and in advance in forward markets. Transaction costs, such as brokerage fees, are typically higher in spot markets than in forward markets. Moreover, the forecast of a firm’s commodity requirement (demand) for a given future date typically changes in an uncertain fashion over time....