The paper compares the dynamics of housing prices in fifteen OECD countries. The data reveal a remarkable degree of similarity across countries and suggest rich dynamics for the first-differenced real annual house prices, with a significant structure of autocorrelation. We estimate a highly significant first-order autocorrelation coefficient at around .45 and obtain An earlier version of the pa...

After the financial crises from 2008-2009, the design of macroprudential policies has arrived in the centre of the macroeconomic discussion. With respect to house price booms, recent research suggest the use of loan-to-value (LTV) policies as a stabilization tool. However, policymakers are rather reluctant and change LTV ratios only in the case of extreme events. This paper builds a Hong Kong s...

This paper investigates the U.S. housing price dynamics from the perspective of speculative trading, in addition to the macro-finance factors such as the stock market, household disposable income and nominal interest rate. It is found that among the speculative investors, fundamental traders drive house price away from the fundamental value. Their trading is weakened in the regime of high nomin...

Over much of the past 25 years, the cycles of house price and consumption growth have been closely synchronised. Three main hypotheses for this co-movement have been proposed in the literature. First, that an increase in house prices raises households' wealth, particularly for those in a position to trade down the housing ladder, which increases their desired level of expenditure. Second, that ...

This paper considers a house allocation problem with no initial ownership and where prices are bounded from below and above by exogenously given price restrictions. This type of housing market contains, e.g., the “assignment market” and the “student placement problem” as special cases. A mechanism called the minimal RPE mechanism is defined, and two main results are obtained. First, it is demon...

A model in which homebuyers make a modest approximation leads house prices to display three features present in the data but usually missing from perfectly rational models: momentum at one-year horizons, mean reversion at five-year horizons, and excess longer-term volatility relative to fundamentals. Valuing a house involves forecasting the current and future demand to live in the surrounding a...

We provide explicit solutions to life-cycle utility maximization problems involving dynamic decisions on investments in stocks and bonds, consumption of perishable goods, and the rental and the ownership of residential real estate. House prices, stock prices, interest rates, and the labor income of the decision-maker follow correlated stochastic processes. The explicit consumption and investmen...

An application of rigorous statistical analysis in aiding investment decision making gains momentum in the United States of America as well as the United Kingdom. Nonetheless in Malaysia the responses from the local academician are rather slow and the rate is even slower as far as the practitioners are concern. This paper illustrates how Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) and its extension, Hed...

A statistical model for predicting individual house prices and constructing a house price index is proposed utilizing information regarding sale price, time of sale, and location (ZIP code). This model is composed of a fixed time effect and a random ZIP (postal) code effect combined with an autoregressive component. The former two components are applied to all home sales while the latter is app...