We expand Nakamura’s (2005) neural network based inflation forecasting experiment to an alternative non-linear model; a Markov switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model. The two non-linear models perform approximately on par and outperform the linear autoregressive model on short forecast horizons of one and two quarters. Furthermore, the MS-AR model is the best performer on longer horizons of thr...

This paper focuses on a nonlinear stochastic model for financial simulation and forecasting based on assumptions of multivariate stochastic correlation, with an application to the European market. We present in particular the key elements of a structured hierarchical econometric model that can be used to forecast financial and commodity markets relying on statistical and simulation methods. The...

In brane inflationary scenarios, the cosmological perturbations are supposed to originate from the vacuum fluctuations of the inflaton field corresponding to the position of the brane. We show that a significant, and possibly dominant, contribution to the curvature perturbation is generated at the end of inflation through the vacuum fluctuations of fields, other than the inflaton, which are lig...