In this paper the long-run trend in CPI inflation (core inflation) for the US over the 1960– 2000 period is estimated using a common trends model. In this framework, core inflation is interpreted and constructed as the long-run forecast of inflation conditional on the information contained in nominal money growth, output fluctuations and movements in the oil price. Unlike other commonly used me...

The representatives at this conference from inflation targeting central banks—including Brazil, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, New Zealand, Korea, Thailand, and the United Kingdom—have provided us with a useful overview of how inflation targeting works in practice. These experiences will be very important as other countries, including Indonesia, consider inflation targeting. We have also had so...

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In this paper we proceed to estimate a measure of the flow-through capability of the firms listed in the Spanish Stock Exchange. The flow-through capability is defined as the ability of firms to transmit inflation shocks to the prices of the products and services sold by the company. According to a strand of literature, this flow-through capability can explain, to some extent, the so called “st...

A prominent policy issue of the 1970s and one that seems certain to dominate the early 1980s is the appropriate response to a prevailing high rate of inflation. The view that there is a long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment, widely accepted at the end of the sixties, is now held by only a small minority of economists. It is still widely believed, however, that there is a short-r...

Life insurers are exposed to deflation risk: falling prices could lead to insufficient investment returns, and inflation-indexed protections could make insurers vulnerable to deflation. In this spirit, this paper proposes a market-based methodology for measuring deflation risk based on a discrete framework: the latter accounts for the real interest rate, the inflation index level, its condition...

This paper provides a review of the concept of core inflation and evaluates the performance of several proposed measures. We first consider the rationale of a central bank in setting its inflation goal in terms of a selected rate of consumer price growth and the use of a core inflation measure as a means of achieving this long-term policy objective. We then discuss desired attributes of a core ...

We extend and unify existing international asset pricing models for perfect capital markets by allowing both exchange rates and inflation rates to be stochastic and investors to consume both tradable and nontradable goods. We argue that in the presence of stochastic inflation and exchange rates, the Adler-Dumas’ [1983] inflation-rate differential risks can be related neither to PPP deviation ri...

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. Since becoming Chairman of the Federal Reserve in 1987, Alan Greenspan steadfastly has held to the view that low and stable inflation is a prerequisite for maximum sustainable economic growth. He has reiterated this belief many times during his nearly two decades as Fed Chairman. In congressional testim...

Estimated, calibrated, and optimal interest rate rules are examined for their ability to dampen economic fluctuations caused by random shocks. A tax rate rule is also considered. The results show that the estimated interest rate rule used in the paper is stable for the period beginning in 1954 except for the early Volcker period, although more observations, especially high inflation ones, are n...