Empirical comparisons of reasonable approaches provide evidence on the best forecasting procedures to use under given conditions. Based on this evidence, I summarize the progress made over the past quarter century with respect to methods for reducing forecasting error. Seven well-established methods have been shown to improve accuracy: combining forecasts and Delphi help for all types of data; ...

A decision maker tests whether the gradient of loss function evaluated at a judgmental is zero. If test does not reject, action decision. rejects, sets equal to boundary rejection region. This statistical rule admissible and conditions on sample realization. The confidence level reflects maker’s aversion uncertainty. applied problem asset allocation. JEL Classification: C1, C11, C12, C13, D81

In complex social communication the introduction of reference points may produce two opposing effects. Under some conditions the introduction of a reference point or stand beyond S's current position tends to move him toward the new position. Thus, telling him that experts think it will be at least 10 yr. before peaceful use of atomic power is feasible, may cause an individual to increase his o...

In criminal intelligence analysis to complement the information entailed and to enhance transparency of the operations, it demands logs of the individual processing activities within an automated processing system. Management and tracing of such security sensitive analytical information flow originated from tightly coupled visualizations into visual analytic system for criminal intelligence tha...

BACKGROUND Little is known about cross-language measurement equivalence of the job content questionnaire (JCQ) PURPOSE: The purposes of this study were to assess the extent of cross-language differential item functioning (DIF) of the 27 JCQ items in six languages (French, Dutch, Belgian-French, Belgian-Dutch (Flemish), Italian, and Swedish) from six European research centers and to test whether...

Accurate forecasts are crucial to successful planning in many organizations and in 2001 forty international experts published a set of principles to guide best practice in forecasting. Some of the principles relate to the use management judgment. Almost all organisations use judgment at some stage in their forecasting process, but do they do so effectively? While judgment can lead to significan...

When subjective descriptions of judgmental policies have been compared to statistical descriptions of policies, investigators have repeatedly found an imperfect correspondence between subjective and statistical measures of importance. There is reason to believe, however, that these findings may be due to the use of inadequate procedures for obtaining subjective weights. The present study, there...

OBJECTIVES To asses the knowledge, opinion and attitude of medical graduates regarding selected reproductive tract infections, diagnosis of sexual dysfunction, identification of sexual abuse and other sexual health issues in Fatima Baqai Hospital Gadap Town. METHODS A cross sectional study conducted from January 2009 to July 2009 in Fatima Baqai Hospital Karachi. An anonymous, self administra...

Men may be key players in the transmission of sexually transmitted infections (STI), and it is important that STI/HIV health services reach men. The objective of this study was to explore sexual health care access and seeking behaviours in men. This study used focus groups to examine sexual health care access and seeking behaviours in men 5 years after implementation of free antiretroviral ther...

A new foundation is presented for the theory of subjective judgments of probability generally known as “Support Theory.” It is based on a new complementation operation that, unlike those of classical probability theory (settheoretic complementation) and classical logic (negation), does not satisfy the principle of The Law Of The Excluded Middle. Interrelationships between the new complementatio...