Few studies have utilized machine learning techniques to predict or understand the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), a key source of subseasonal variability and predictability. Here, we present simple framework for real-time MJO prediction using shallow artificial neural networks (ANNs). We construct two ANN architectures, one deterministic probabilistic, that index maps tropical variables. Thes...

A newly developed spectral cumulus parameterization (spectral scheme) was implemented in the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier version 2 (SINTEX-F2) seasonal prediction system to improve intraseasonal variability initialization. simple sea surface temperature (SST) nudging scheme using different SST data and restoring times used initialize system, initialized atmosphere obtained from both o...

A large-amplitude mixed Rossby–gravity wave packet is identified in the western Pacific using 6–10-day bandpass-filtered winds. Individual disturbances of 2300–3000-km wavelength propagated westward as the packet moved slowly eastward. The packet first appeared, and subsequently amplified, within a region of active convection associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), which was isolat...

The “Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO)” project comprises three experiments, designed to evaluate comprehensively the heating, moistening, and momentum associated with tropical convection in general circulation models (GCMs). We consider here only those GCMs that performed all experiments. Some models display relatively higher or lower MJO fidelity...

Sea levels in the Western North Pacific (WNP) are presented with anomalous intraseasonal variations. This study examines response of sea level WNP to atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillation modes, namely Madden–Julian (MJO) and Boreal Summer (BSISO), using 25 years (1993–2017) satellite altimetry barotropic model output. In winter, MJO has significant effects on component due instant wind pressur...

Possible sources of the observed modulation tropical Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) by stratospheric quasi-biennial (QBO) and 11-year solar cycle are investigated using 41 years reanalysis data archived climate model data. Larger upward fluxes extratropical planetary-scale waves, leading in some cases to sudden warmings (SSWs), late fall early winter during easterly phase QBO than westerly (th...

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is often observed to weaken or sometimes completely decay as its convective anomaly moves from the Indian Ocean over Maritime Continent (MC), which known MC barrier effect on MJO. This exaggerated in numerical models. Using 23 years of retrospective intraseasonal forecast two coupled model systems with useful MJO prediction skills, we show that predi...