This paper outlines ongoing research that is investigating ways to increase the supply of high quality planting materials for smallholder forestry in the Philippines. A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) of the nursery sector that had been developed previously by one of the authors was further refined during a planning and implementation workshop for the ACIAR Smallholder Nursery project. The refine...

this paper investigates the asymmetry in volatility of returns for the iranian stock market using the daily closing values of the tehran exchange price index (tepix) covering the period from march 25, 2001 to july 25, 2012, with a total of 2743 observations. to this end, two sets of tests have been employed: the first set is based on the residuals derived from a symmetric garch (1,1) model. the...

The Commanding Officer (CO) on a submarine makes numerous subtle perceptual judgments, assessments of complex situations, and decisions under conditions of time pressure, high stakes, shifting goals, dynamic conditions, and uncertainty. The objective of our project was to deeply understand and clarify the nature of the decisions made by a CO so that we could develop recommendations for a potent...

In this paper submitted to the special session on “System Dynamics and Organizational Learning: purposes, practices and pitfalls”, we describe a system dynamics intervention using the principles of Group Model Building to uncover the deep-seated issues in a long-standing problem area of an organization. In describing this intervention, we will outline how we used causal loop diagrams to represe...