The medical history is a powerful diagnostic technology. However, in seeking to establish an appropriate balance between the history and the other diagnostic modalities more explicit consideration must be given to the performance characteristics of the medical history. Building on recent work undertaken in the UK and elsewhere in Europe it is now feasible to develop a library of setting-specifi...

Method: A total of 258 children and adolescents (46.51% boys) aged 8-18 years (Mean±SD: 12.66±2.73) and their parents were recruited from a community sample. For each pair of child-parent, the child and one parent were interviewed separately by an interviewer using the CASDI and by a second blind interviewer using the DSM-5 Pediatric Diagnostic Interview one week after the CASDI administration....

Psychology journals rarely publish nonsignificant results. At the same time, it is often very unlikely (or “too good to be true”) that a set of studies yields exclusively significant results. Here, we use likelihood ratios to explain when sets of studies that contain a mix of significant and nonsignificant results are likely to be true or “too true to be bad.” As we show, mixed results are not ...

Calculation of carrier risk of an X linked disease may be performed on a small computer after DNA analysis, but a method for rapid hand estimation of the risk is still useful for a quick check of the results and weighing the relative importance of each element of information, such as the determination of a haplotype. Each risk estimation is a function of a prior risk and the product of likeliho...

Asthma epidemiology relies heavily on standardized questionnaires, but little is known about the understanding of asthma symptoms among adults in the community. In 2004, the authors assessed the level of agreement between responses to a standardized questionnaire and responses to a questionnaire completed by participants after viewing a demonstration of asthma symptoms. The study involved 601 y...

The identification of protein sites undergoing correlated evolution (coevolution) is of great interest due to the possibility that these pairs will tend to be adjacent in the three-dimensional structure. Identification of such pairs should provide useful information for understanding the evolutionary process, predicting the effects of site-directed substitution, and potentially for predicting p...

Maximum likelihood fits to data can be done using binned data (histograms) and unbinned data. With binned data, one gets not only the fitted parameters but also a measure of the goodness of fit. With unbinned data, currently, the fitted parameters are obtained but no measure of goodness of fit is available. This remains, to date, an unsolved problem in statistics. Using Bayes’ theorem and likel...

With the advent of high-throughput technologies for measuring genome-wide expression profiles, a large number of methods have been proposed for discovering diagnostic markers that can accurately discriminate between different classes of a disease. However, factors such as the small sample size of typical clinical data, the inherent noise in high-throughput measurements, and the heterogeneity ac...

The Bayesian approach provides a unified and logical framework for the analysis of evidence and to provide results in the form of likelihood ratios (LR) from the forensic laboratory to court. In this contribution we want to clarify how the biometric scientist or laboratory can adapt their conventional biometric systems or technologies to work according to this Bayesian approach. Forensic system...

The Cameron-Martin theorem, which has figured prominently in the developments of the last several lectures, is the most important special case of the far more general Girsanov theorem, which is our next topic of discussion. Like the Cameron-Martin theorem, the Girsanov theorem relates the Wiener measure P to different probability measures Q on the space of continuous paths by giving an explicit...