The size will be approximately 5100 ± 130 cases. discrepancy of actual and forecasted number cases is within 3%. However, predicted daily new are scattered vary between 26% to 600%. Prediction cumulative 3993 29 errors 7.413% 48.276% for cases, respectively.

The cell growth and product formation kinetics of anaerobic biohydrogen production by mixed anaerobic cultures was investigated using unstructured models in the present study. They described the realtionship between biomass growth and product formation in the hydrogen production process. Experimental results show that the Logistic model and LeudekingPiret model could be adopted to describe the ...

This paper offers an alternative way, based on the logistic population growth hypothesis, to yield transitional dynamics in the standard AK model with exogenous savings rate. Within this framework, we show that the dynamics of the capital stock per person and its growth rate can be non-monotonic over time. Moreover, even in the presence of negative growth, the capital stock per-capita can conve...

The logistic model has been very effective in forecasting many technological forecasting patterns. However, it has the characteristic of underestimating the forecasts in many situations. This is mainly due to the constraints imposed by the constant saturation level of the logistic growth curve. This paper proposes a variable asymptote logistic (VAL) model for forecasting electricity consumption...

A new approach to predict the growth/no growth interface of Listeria monocytogenes as a function of storage temperature, pH, citric acid (CA) and ascorbic acid (AA) is presented. A linear logistic regression procedure was performed and a non-linear model was obtained by adding new variables by means of a Neural Network model based on Product Units (PUNN). The classification efficiency of the tr...

In order to model random density-dependence in population dynamics, we construct the random analogue of the well-known logistic process in the branching process’ framework. This densitydependence corresponds to intraspecific competition pressure, which is ubiquitous in ecology, and translates mathematically into a quadratic death rate. The logistic branching process, or LB-process, can thus be ...

The aim of this paper is to present some approaches to tumour growth modelling using the logistic equation. As the first approach the well-known ordinary differential equation is used to model the EAT in mice. For the same kind of tumour, a logistic equation with time delay is also used. As the second approach, a logistic equation with diffusion is proposed. In this case a delay argument in the...

A stochastic differential equation for a discontinuous Markov process is employed to model the magnitude of a population which grows logistically between disasters which are proportional to the current population size (density independent disasters). The expected persistence or extinction time satisfies a singular differential-difference equation. When the number of disasters, in the absence of...

in this paper using catastrophe theory, we investigate non-smooth changes in tehran stock exchange. stock market crashes bring not only panic among investors, but also in deeper market lead to recession and decrease in consumer's confidence. as catastrophe theory is strong tool in explaining nonlinear phenomena, by applying stochastic cusp catastrophe model we examine sudden change in tehr...