The mental-model account of naive probabilistic reasoning by P. N. Johnson-Laird, P. Legrenzi, V. Girotto, M. S. Legrenzi, and J.-P. Caverni (1999) provides an opportunity to clarify several similarities and differences between it and ecological rationality (frequentist) accounts. First, ambiguities in the meaning of Bayesian reasoning can lead to disagreements and inappropriate arguments. Seco...

Probabilistic modelling has proved useful to analyseperformance, reliability and energy usage of distributed ornetworked systems. We consider parametric probabilistic models,in which probabilities are specified as expressions over a setof parameters, rather than concrete values. We address theparameter synthesis problem for parametric Markov decisionprocesses and paramet...

This thesis is concerned with the probabilistic analysis of random combinatorial structures and the runtime analysis of randomized search heuristics. On the subject of random structures, we investigate two classes of combinatorial objects. The first is the class of planar maps and the second is the class of generalized parking functions. We identify typical properties of these structures and sh...

Recently, there has been a growing interest in developing evolutionary algorithms based on probabilistic modeling. In this scheme, the offspring population is generated according to the estimated probability density model of the parent instead of using recombination and mutation operators. In this paper, we have proposed probabilistic model-building genetic algorithms (PMBGAs) in permutation re...

where each of them is considered a phrase of a language. Implementing an unsupervised technique we infer a grammar of this language. We do not use predefined rules. Music generation is based on music knowledge represented by probabilistic matrices, which we call evolutionary matrices because they are changing constantly, even while they are generating new compositions. We show that the informat...

Flood prediction has advanced significantly in terms of technique and capacity to achieve policymakers’ objectives accurate forecast identification flood-prone impacted areas. tools are critical for flood hazard risk management. However, numerous reviews on modelling have focused individual models. This study presents a state-of-the-art review with focus analyzing the chronological growth resea...

In this paper, we introduce the notion of probabilistic valued measures as a generalization of non-negative measures and construct the corresponding Lp spaces, for distributions p > "0. It is alsoshown that if the distribution p satises p "1 then, as in the classical case, these spaces are completeprobabilistic normed spaces.

Functional turnover of transcription factor binding sites (TFBS), such as whole-motif loss or gain, are common events during genome evolution. Conventional probabilistic phylogenetic shadowing methods model the evolution of genomes only at nucleotide level, and lack the ability to capture the evolutionary dynamics of functional turnover of aligned sequence entities. As a result, comparative gen...

Macrogenomic events, in which genes are gained and lost, play a pivotal evolutionary role in microbial evolution. Nevertheless, probabilistic-evolutionary models describing such events and methods for their robust inference are considerably less developed than existing methodologies for analyzing site-specific sequence evolution. Here, we present a novel method for the inference of gains and lo...