naturally all activities are along with risk and uncertainties. project risk has the concept more than the financial concept. in project management, risks are events that can occur during the project implementation and has negative effects on project completion and meeting goals. identification, analysis, prioritizing and having plan for dealing with these events are playing an important role i...

We focus on the scenario of robust information clustering (RIC) based on the minimax optimization of mutual information (MI). The minimization of MI leads to the standard mass-constrained deterministic annealing clustering, which is an empirical risk-minimization algorithm. The maximization of MI works out an upper bound of the empirical risk via the identification of outliers (noisy data point...

Effective hedging strategies for variable annuities are crucial for insurance companies in preventing potentially large losses. We consider discrete hedging of options embedded in guarantees with ratchet features, under both equity (including jump) risk and interest rate risk. Since discrete hedging and the underlying model considered lead to an incomplete market, we compute hedging strategies ...

Using Metaheuristics models and Evolutionary Algorithms for solving portfolio problem has been considered in recent years.In this study, by using particles swarm optimization and tabu search algorithms we  optimized two-sided risk measures . A standard exact penalty function transforms the considered portfolio selection problem into an equivalent unconstrained minimization problem. And in final...

A new approach for cost-sensitive classification is proposed. We extend the framework of cost-sensitive learning to mitigate risks of huge costs occurring with low probabilities, and propose an algorithm that achieves this goal. Instead of minimizing the expected cost commonly used in cost-sensitive learning, our algorithm minimizes expected shortfall, a.k.a. conditional value-at-risk, known as...

We propose a general approach for supervised learning with structured output spaces, such as combinatorial and polyhedral sets, that is based on minimizing estimated conditional risk functions. Given a loss function defined over pairs of output labels, we first estimate the conditional risk function by solving a (possibly infinite) collection of regularized least squares problems. A prediction ...

Recently proposed adversarial classification methods have shown promising results for cost sensitive and multivariate losses. In contrast with empirical risk minimization (ERM) methods, which use convex surrogate losses to approximate the desired non-convex target loss function, adversarial methods minimize non-convex losses by treating the properties of the training data as being uncertain and...

Experimental analysis of agent strategies in multiagent systems presents a tradeoff between granularity and statistical confidence. Collecting a large amount of data about each strategy profile improves confidence, but restricts the range of strategies and profiles that can be explored. We propose a flexible approach, where multiple game-theoretic formulations can be constructed to model the sa...

In this work we study the learnability of stochastic processes with respect to the conditional risk, i.e. the existence of a learning algorithm that improves its next-step performance with the amount of observed data. We introduce a notion of pairwise discrepancy between conditional distributions at different times steps and show how certain properties of these discrepancies can be used to cons...

In regularized risk minimization, the associated optimization problem becomes particularly difficult when both the loss and regularizer are nonsmooth. Existing approaches either have slow or unclear convergence properties, are restricted to limited problem subclasses, or require careful setting of a smoothing parameter. In this paper, we propose a continuation algorithm that is applicable to a ...