This paper examines the causal relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic aggregates in Iran, by applying the techniques of the long–run Granger non–causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). We test the causal relationships between the TEPIX Index and the three macroeconomic variables: money supply, value of trade balance, and industrial production using quarterly data for t...

One of the features of a financial market, the stock market, in particular, is the market sentiment which is the overall attitude of investors toward a particular security or financial market. Investors always seek to create a portfolio with minimum risk while maintaining the expected return level. Therefore, perceiving the relationship between the stock returns and markets returns can be helpf...

This paper studies the connection between the stock market and the unemployment rate. I establish three facts. First, the log of the real value of the S&P 500 and the log of a logistic transformation of the unemployment rate are non-stationary cointegrated series. Second, the stock market Granger causes the unemployment rate. Third, the connection between changes in the real value of the stock ...

The objective of this paper is to explore the day-of-the-week effect on the Indian stock market returns in the post-reform era. Till the late seventies, empirical studies provided ample evidence as to the informational efficiency of the capital markets advocating futility of information in consistently generating abnormal returns. However, later studies identified certain anomalies in the effic...

How does competition in a firm's product market affect the behavior of its stock? We examine this question in a noisy rational expectations economy in which firms operate under monopolistic competition. Production is subject to productivity shocks and requires capital, raised on a perfectly competitive equity market. Investors observe firms' past profits and collect private information about th...

Although a lot of the empirical research have studied the relationship between changes of oil price and economic activity, it is surprising that little research has been conducted on the relationship between oil price shocks and the Greater China region (China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan). Therefore, the main goal of this paper is to apply a detail monthly data from 1997/7 to 2008/9 to fill up this ...

The goal of agent-based modeling of stock markets is to enrich our understanding of fundamental processes that appear in a market. Artificial stock markets are models of financial markets used to study and understand market dynamics. Agent Based Artificial Stock Markets can be seen as any market model in which prices are formed endogenously as a result of participants’ interaction. There are va...

Recent studies show that a negative shock in stock prices will generate more volatility than a positive shock of similar magnitude. The aim of this paper is to appraise the hypothesis under which the conditional mean and the conditional variance of stock returns are asymmetric functions of past information. We compare the results for the Portuguese Stock Market Index PSI 20 with six other Stock...

From the 1994 bailout policies to the 2015 Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the policy impact on the Chinese stock market has changed over time. By May 2015, global investors can directly invest in a more legalized and normalized Chinese stock market, whereas they are still concerned about the policy-oriented market and its attendant risks. In this study, we employ the family of GARCH models t...

Stock market decision making is a very challenging and difficult task of financial data prediction. Prediction about stock market with high accuracy movement yield profit for investors of the stocks. Because of the complexity of stock market financial data, development of efficient models for prediction decision is very difficult, and it must be accurate. This study attempted to develop models ...