Okun’s coefficient is estimated from U.S. quarterly data covering the period 1947:1–1992:2. The cyclical components of unemployment and output are extracted by smoothing using the Kalman filter as applied to Harvey’s structural time series model. The estimated Okun’s coefficient is around 20.38 irrespective of the whether the model used is static or dynamic and irrespective of the lag length in...

This paper uses newly available long-span data on real per capita incomes from 1900-2001 to test for stochastic convergence in a diverse group of 29 countries. To perform our tests, we utilize the two-break LM unit root test of Lee and Strazicich (2003) and endogenously determine two distinct structural breaks in level and trend for each country. Despite including both OECD and non-OECD countri...

This paper argues that the implications of globalization for monetary policy come mainly through two channels: On the one hand, the many structural changes, which are associated with the globalization process, cause an increase in uncertainty surrounding monetary policy. This leads to an increase in uncertainty about how to interpret macroeconomic data/indicators and about the monetary transmis...

We examine theories of leverage and debt maturity, focusing on the impact of firms’ investment opportunity sets and regulatory environments in determining these policies. Using results on strategic complementarities, we identify sufficient conditions for the theory to have testable implications for reduced-form and structural-equation regression coefficients. Obtaining testable implications for...

This paper investigates empirically the interrelationships between the daily stock market returns of the Nikkei 225, DAX and Dow Jones Industrial index. Contrary to former work this paper uses the succession of the markets in time to form different econometric models. In this way it is possible to detect causality not only from the US to foreign countries but in some cases vice versa. The obser...

The purpose of this paper is to implement theoretically, the observation that the relative importance of fundamental versus technical analysis in the foreign exchange market depends on the time horizon in currency trade. For shorter time horizons, more weight is placed on technical analysis, while more weight is placed on fundamental analysis for longer horizons. The theoretical framework is th...

Employing a probit, logit and gompit model this paper demonstrates that small firm development, represented by a group of structural, behavioral and performance variables determines regional location in Poland. The paper uses original data that samples the small firm stratum in two contrasting regions, Pomorskie and Lubelskie. The following variables were shown to be significantly correlated wi...

In this paper we propose a new set of multivariate stochastic models that capture time varying seasonality within the vector innovations structural time series (VISTS) framework. These models encapsulate exponential smoothing methods in a multivariate setting. The models considered are the local level, local trend and damped trend VISTS models with an additive multivariate seasonal component. W...

Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword searches and unemployment rates using monthly German data...