How does collaboration influence creativity and, in particular, the invention of breakthroughs? Recent research has attempted to resolve this question by considering the variance of creative outcomes, implicitly assuming that greater probability of breakthroughs comes at the cost of greater probability of particularly poor outcomes. However, through an examination of the overall distribution of...

This paper examines people’s subjective beliefs about probability distributions arising from repeated events, such as the number of heads in ten coin flips. Across elicitation methods and decision scenarios, people express beliefs that are systematically biased relative to the actual distribution, over-estimating the tails and under-estimating the shoulders of the distribution. While experts ar...

* The first author is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71471090, 11001052), the Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation of the Ministry of Education of China (No. 14YJCZH182), China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No. 2014T70449, 2012M520964), Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province of China (No. BK20131339), Qing Lan Project, PAPD, Project of Constructio...

We study the formation of tidal tails in pairs of merging disk galaxies with structural properties motivated by current theories of cold dark matter (CDM) cosmologies. In a recent study, Dubinski, Mihos & Hernquist (1996) showed that the formation of prominent tidal tails can be strongly suppressed by massive and extended dark haloes. For the large halo-to-disk mass ratio expected in CDM cosmol...

Empirical volatility changes in time and exhibits tails, which are heavier than normal. Moreover, empirical volatility has sometimes quite substantial upwards jumps and clusters on high levels. We investigate classical and nonclassical stochastic volatility models with respect to their extreme behavior. We show that classical stochastic volatility models driven by Brownian motion can model heav...

Intrinsically disordered regions, particularly disordered tails, are very common in DNA-binding proteins (DBPs). The ability of disordered tails to modulate specific and nonspecific interactions with DNA is tightly linked to their being rich in positively charged residues that are often non-randomly distributed along the tail. Perturbing the composition and distribution of charged residues in t...

Current histological investigation of vaginal swabs after alleged sexual assault includes the scoring of spermatozoa (0, + to ++++) and the recording of visible tails. It is a method that is universally employed. Despite this method being used for 40 years, there has never been a study investigating its suitability for forensic science. Here, we investigate the reproducibility and subjectivity ...

Empirical volatility changes in time and exhibits tails, which are heavier than normal. Moreover, empirical volatility has sometimes quite substantial upwards jumps and clusters on high levels. We investigate classical and nonclassical stochastic volatility models with respect to their extreme behavior. We show that classical stochastic volatility models driven by Brownian motion can model heav...