We apply a structural vectorautoregressive analysis to decompose fluctuations in the growth rate of industrial production and inflation precipitated by COVID-19 pandemic USA into aggregate demand, supply, uncertainty shocks. While all three types shocks contributed output dynamics, surge economic decline more strongly than demand or supply disruptions. In 2021, adverse emerged be similarly impo...

iran’s economy has experienced an average inflation rate of 18.77 percent during the period of 1979-2010. many economists believe that the budget deficits are one of the main determinants of the chronic and relatively high inflation. this paper investigates the relationship between budget deficits and inflation. dynamics of iran’s monetary sector, based on the three cointegration relations i.e....

A natural generalization of the ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic) process introduced in Engle (1982) to allow for past conditional variances in the current conditional variance equation is proposed. Stationarity conditions and autocorrelation structure for this new class of parametric models are derived. Maximum likelihood estimation and testing are also considered. Finally an e...

This paper focused on developing a model to study the effect of sukuk issuance on the inflation rate in top sukuk issuing Islamic economies at 2014‎. ‎For this purpose‎, ‎as the available sample size is small‎, ‎a Bayesian approach to regression model is used which contains key supply and demand side factors in addition to the outstanding sukuk volume as potential determinants of inflation rate...

In this work, I consider an inflation model with a quadratic potential and negative cosmological constant. An analytical solution of the equation motion for inflaton field is found without slow-roll approximation. The result that rolling at constant speed. prediction perturbation calculated.

An important input to monetary policymaking is estimating the current level of inflation. This paper examines empirically whether the measurement of trend inflation can be improved by using disaggregated data on sectoral inflation to construct indexes akin to core inflation but with a time-varying distributed lags of weights, where the sectoral weight depends on the timevarying volatility and p...

This paper considers the joint problem of model estimation and implementation of monetary policy in the face of uncertainty regarding the process of structural change in the economy. We model unobserved structural change through time variation in the natural rates of interest and unemployment. We show that certainty equivalent optimal policies perform poorly when there is model uncertainty abou...

Abstract T he relationship between public sector deficits and inflation is one of the important and controversial issues in the academic literature as well as in economic policy field. On the other hand, a major objective of macroeconomic policies is to foster economic growth and to keep inflation on a low level. So keeping the price stability plays an important role in de...