Probably because of their interpretability and transparent nature, synthetic controls have become widely applied in empirical research economics the social sciences. This article aims to provide practical guidance researchers employing control methods. The starts with an overview introduction estimation. main sections discuss advantages framework as a design, describe settings where reliable es...

This paper presents an optimal portfolio selection approach based on value at risk (VaR), conditional value at risk (CVaR), worst-case value at risk (WVaR) and partitioned value at risk (PVaR) measures as well as calculating these risk measures. Mathematical solution methods for solving these optimization problems are inadequate and very complex for a portfolio with high number of assets. For t...

we have studied the relation between bank deposit rates and house prices in iran. for that, we have run some var models, using the following variables: real deposit rates (including 1 and 5 years deposit rates), money supply (including the high powered money and the liquidity), gdp, housing services index, and number of licenses for new houses. our results show that a reduction in the deposit r...

This paper compares the cycles in UK sectoral output generated from both univariate and multivariate unobserved components models. Common trends and cycles are found among the sectors and it is found that these help to identify the cycles in the multivariate model. JEL Classi...cation: C32, E32.

This paper suggests a bootstrap testing procedure for determining the rank of cointegrated systems. The properties of the new testing procedure are investigated using Monte Carlo techniques. The performance of the test compares favourably to that of the widely used procedures for determining cointegration rank proposed by Johansen (1988). JEL classi cation: C12; C15; C32.

Recent work in the macroeconometric literature considers the problem of summarising efficiently a large set of variables and using this summary for a variety of purposes including forecasting. This paper applies a new factor extraction method to the extraction of core inflation and forecasting of UK inflation in the recent past. JEL Codes:C13, C32

We examine the impact of adding either a VaR or a CVaR constraint to the mean–variance model when security returns are assumed to have a discrete distribution with finitely many jump points. Three main results are obtained. First, portfolios on the VaR-constrained boundary exhibit (K + 2)-fund separation, where K is the number of states for which the portfolios suffer losses equal to the VaR bo...

The linkages between inflation and the economy’s cyclical position are thought to be strongly affected by the credibility of monetary authorities. The author complements existing research by estimating a small forward-looking model of the U.S. economy with endogenous central bank credibility. His work differs from the existing literature in several ways. First, he endogenizes and estimates cred...

This paper is aimed at analyzing the interrelation between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Energy Consumption (EC) in Mexico during period 1970-2014. To do that, we carry out a cointegration test Granger causality analysis. The empirical results from show stable link growth rates of FDI EC long run. While Granger’s that short run there unidirectional rate toward EC, while medium bidirection...